A general guide to position sizing for beginners. There is nothing new which I am sharing. Everything is already in the public domain or many books elsewhere.

Praj Industries - keep on the radar. Price is telling something. Smart money most probably pushing out. Strict SL needed. Volatility contracted.

David Larry (2003) - Trading Explosion Breakaway Gaps

How to trade Breakaway Gaps?

First of all - identify a Breakaway Gap by looking at price breaking out with a gap wherein no shares exchanged hands. If you look at the attached chart of NELCO, you can see one on 12th August.

Nest step - wait for few sessions to look for "if the gap is filled or not" and simultaneously look for "PIVOT LOW".

What is pivot low? It is a candle that is surrounded by two candles on either side with higher lows. Ideally, this should be your stop-loss point. Candle 2 is PL

What about the entry? Entry is taken when the right side candle's high next to the Pivot point candle is knocked out. (buy when high of candle 3 is crossed with a stop loss below low of candle 2)

Especially when a lot of stocks have flown higher & the index is near resistance, I would be observing the chart closely if it breaks out all of a sudden or retraces back a bit. If it is a retracement - that would give another opportunity to trade a few auto names.

Nifty Auto

Common price action trading mistakes that cost me lakhs of rupees:

A thread 🧵

1. Front running the market based on my analysis:

Any analysis we do should be proved by market as correct before we jump into a trade.

How?

(1/n)

Example:

Mr. X marked 1500 as a strong support in HDFC Bank. Next day, stock opened at 1510, came down and hit 1500.

ABC went long in the stock. A few minutes later, stop got triggered. What went wrong here?

(2/n)

1500 is support for HDFC bank as per Mr. X but he did not wait to check if market validated his opinion.

At supports and resistances marked by a trader (you), wait for market to show the stock is actually taking support/resistance at those levels.

(3/n)

For your analysis to be correct, market buying>selling at support, market selling>buying at resistance.

Essentially, on a lower TF, check for bullish price action at support, bearish price action at resistance before you enter the trade.

(4/n)

Remember that no support is too low to be broken and no resistance is too high to be broken.

(5/n)

Why & how does rising Crude Oil hurt India?

A short thread 🧵

India is the 3rd largest consumer of Oil at 5.35 million barrels per day (MBPD) behind US (21.2mbpd) and China (15.1mbpd)

India imports nearly 85% of its total Crude oil consumption every year.

India's own production has been below 700,000 barrels per day for a long time.

India imports oil in the following share as per FY 21 numbers:

Iran 17%,
Saudi Arabia 16%,
UAE 14%,
USA 9%,
Qatar 8%,
Others 38%

India import share for Oil from Russia is under 2%, an insignificant number.

India imports about 290 Million tones of Oil in a year.

Assuming that Oil prices are at $75 (last year),
India's oil import bill is ~ $165bn

India exports refined petroleum products as well. At $75 oil price those exports would amount to $58bn

=Oil trade deficit of $105bn

Oil at:
$100, India's oil trade deficit (imports - exports) would be ~ $140bn

For every $10 rise in Crude Oil from say $100, India's oil trade deficit will rise by ~$15bn

For instance at $120 Oil price it would be ~ $170bn