🚨Analysis Thread🚨

As we've reached the half way point of the season, inspired by old posts on @FFScout & @KaramTayser I've done a half season analysis📊

This analysis will look at two things:

❤️Consistency v Explosiveness🔥
✅Reliability v Risk🚫

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1/20

🚨Season Analysis Thread🚨

To do this, I've split it into 4 categories:

👑Premium (MID & FWD above £9.5m)
💎Non-Premium (MID & FWD £9.4m - £6.2m)
💰Budget (MID & FWD below £6.2m)
⚔️Defenders

I've used the 10 highest scoring from each category📈

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2/20
🚨Premium CvE🚨

First is Premium assets, looking at Consistency v Explosiveness for top 10 highest scorers. Games showing 1 & 2+ return & points.

Criteria to meet:

🔥 Explosive: ≥ 25% 2+ returns
❤️Consistent: ≥ 40% 1+ returns
❌Risky: ≥ 50% Blanks

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3/20
🚨Premium CvE🚨

🇵🇹Bruno highest explosiveness
🦊Vardy 2nd
🛡️Kane & Son joint 3rd
🔥Kane 3 Legend hauls😍
🇧🇪KDB just meets explosive criteria
🧿Sterling most consistent
🇪🇬Salah very consistent
❌Rashford & Mane risky
❌Auba high risk

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4/20
🚨Premium Reliability🚨

Reliability v Risk, I look at how often the player made any return v blanking in the first half of the season.

Criteria to meet:

😍Very Reliable: ≥ 60% any returns
✅Reliable: 51-59% any returns
🚫Risky: ≥ 50% Blanks

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5/20
🚨Premium Reliability🚨

🛡️Kane most reliable - 72% return
❤️Salah, Vardy & Bruno all very reliable
🇰🇷Son reliable & explosive
✅KDB & Sterling reliable
👹Rashford borderline - 50/50 reliable & blank
🚫Mane & Auba risky

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6/20
🚨Non-Premium CvE🚨

Non-Premium assets for the top 10 highest scorers. Lower criteria threshold as cheaper assets.

Criteria to meet:

🔥 Explosive: ≥ 20% 2+ returns
❤️Consistent: ≥ 30% 1+ returns
❌Risky: ≥ 50% Blanks

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7/20
🚨Non-Premium CvE🚨

🔥Grealish only explosive player
❤️DCL extremely consistent
❤️Ings & Bamford high consistency
🇨🇮 Zaha risky but still explosive (just under 20%)
🦊Maddison consistent (lacked mins GW1-5)
❌JWP very risky
❌Barnes & Firmino risky

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8/20
🚨Non-Premium Reliability🚨

Reliability v Risk, I look at how often the player made any return v blanking in the first half of the season.

Criteria to meet:

😍Very Reliable: ≥51% any returns
✅Reliable: 40-50% any returns
🚫Risky: ≥ 50% Blanks

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9/20
🚨Non-Premium Reliability🚨

😍DCL most reliable - 75% returns
😍Ings & Bamford very reliable
✅Grealish was most explosive - 4th most reliable
✅Zaha & Maddison reliable (high blanks too🚫)
🚫JWP most risky
🚫Firmino & Barnes high risk

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10/20
🚨Budget CvE🚨

Budget assets for the top 9 highest scorers & Gundogan. Lower criteria threshold as cheaper assets (£6.2m & below).

Criteria to meet:

🔥 Explosive: ≥ 10% 2+ returns
❤️Consistent: ≥ 30% 1+ returns
❌Risky: ≥ 65% Blanks

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11/20
🚨Budget CvE🚨

🔥Watkins most explosive, but very high risk❌
🔥Fornals explosive & high risk❌
❤️Adams most consistent, Neto consistent too.
❤️Gundo, reliable & low games
🇨🇿Soucek reliable, but high blanks❌
❌Saka most blanks (AFC form good now)

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12/20
🚨Budget Reliability🚨

Reliability v Risk, I look at how often the player made any return v blanking in the first half of the season.

Criteria to meet:

😍Very Reliable: ≥40% any returns
✅Reliable: 30-39% any returns
🚫Risky: ≥ 65% Blanks

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13/20
🚨Budget Reliability🚨

😍Adams most reliable & consistent
😍Neto very reliable
✅Klich & Gundogan reliable
❌Watkins least reliable player
❌Fornals, Soucek & Saka most blanks
✅Arsenal hit form so Saka reliable recent weeks

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14/20
🚨DEF CvE🚨

Looking at Consistency v Explosiveness for Defenders for the top 10 highest scorers. Returns include clean sheet & assist/goal

Criteria to meet:

🔥 Explosive: ≥ 10% 2+ returns
❤️Consistent: ≥ 40% 1+ returns
❌Risky: ≥ 50% Blanks

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15/20
🚨DEF CvE🚨

🔥Zouma most explosive v appearances
🔥Robbo & Cresswell both explosive
🔥Robbo most explosive points returns
❤️Chilwell most consistent
❤️KWP & Dias very consistent
❌Justin highest blanks, but met explosive criteria

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16/20
🚨DEF Reliability🚨

Reliability v Risk, I look at how often the player made any return v blanking in the first half of the season.

Criteria to meet:

😍Very Reliable: ≥60% any returns
✅Reliable: 50-59% any returns
🚫Risky: ≥ 50% Blanks

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17/20
🚨DEF Reliability🚨

😍Chilwell most reliable defender
😍Dias & KWP next most reliable
✅Robbo & Cresswell joint 4th most reliable
✅Zouma most explosive but 6th most reliable
✅Bednarek, Dallas & Ogbonna reliable
🚫Justin most blanks & least reliable

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18/20
🔑Key Findings🔑

🔥Bruno most explosive
😍DCL most reliable
😍Kane explosive & reliable
🔥Grealish most explosive Non-Prem
😍Adams most reliable & consistent Budget
😍Chilwell most reliable DEF
❌Liverpool FWD risky bar Salah
❌Watkins not reliable

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19/20
🚨Analysis🚨

A lot consistency & reliability cross over, but isn't necessarily the exact same. Overall the thread/charts convey decent info, but I will be looking to build upon this in an article in the coming days to flesh it out more.

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20/20
@BigManBakar @lateriser12 @zophar666 @WGTA_FPL @3AmigosFPL @hailcheaters @FPLSurgery @FPLMatthew @FFH_HQ @FFScout @FFCommunity_ @FPL_Swe @FPL_Heisenberg

Hi guys, here's an analysis of consistency v explosiveness for 1st half of the season. Any help sharing/RT would be amazing❤️
@MattFPL01 @FPLNym @FPL_Connect @FPL__Raptor @PlanetFPLPod @BenCrellin @VionylRichie @FplSigurd @yonkersfpl

Hi guys, here's an analysis of consistency v explosiveness for 1st half of the season. Any help sharing/RT would be amazing as a good bit of work gone into it❤️

More from For later read

Nice to discover Judea Pearl ask a fundamental question. What's an 'inductive bias'?


I crucial step on the road towards AGI is a richer vocabulary for reasoning about inductive biases.

explores the apparent impedance mismatch between inductive biases and causal reasoning. But isn't the logical thinking required for good causal reasoning also not an inductive bias?

An inductive bias is what C.S. Peirce would call a habit. It is a habit of reasoning. Logical thinking is like a Platonic solid of the many kinds of heuristics that are discovered.

The kind of black and white logic that is found in digital computers is critical to the emergence of today's information economy. This of course is not the same logic that drives the general intelligence that lives in the same economy.

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