1/ Have you ever heard the expression of, "Wolf in Sheep's clothing", or when someone mentions a, "False Prophet"? All referring to someone being fake.

I like to use those pointing out politicians, also saying they have a "Straw Tail".

The people can always be brought to the bidding...tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the naysayers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger.

Hermann Goring

We've seen reports of Yoruba leaders asking President Buhari to stop the war and sack service chiefs immediately as a way of beginning restructuring.Our country is sitting on a keg of gunpowder they claim. Once again partisan hacks want to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

You see, when you are fighting small limited wars there is a natural inclination , on the part of politicians not directly impacted by the war to want to blow things out of proportion. There is a basic disconnection now in this country between the population and the war

....and i find it quite frankly. Frightening. Compared to what was obtainable 2015, the security situation in Nigeria has vastly improved yet the media ..and partisan hacks portray a much more pessimistic narrative.

Consider that in 2015 over 21 Local government areas and 2.6 million Nigerians were cut off from the rest of the country, under the administration of a caliphate in Nigeria for 16 months. A huge chunk of the northeast was no mans country.

Survivorship Bias 101

History is written by the victors. But if we exclusively focus on these successes, we allow survivorship bias to distort our understanding of the world.

But what is "survivorship bias" and how does it work?

Here's Survivorship Bias 101!

👇👇👇

1/ First, a few definitions.

Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures).

When we do so, we miss the true "base rates" of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.

2/ When we completely ignore failures, we lose our ability to correctly identify the differences between successes and failures.

Put simply, exclusively focusing on successes may actually inhibit our ability to identify (and replicate) the actions that led to such success.

3/ Cicero wrote on the topic over 2,000 years ago.

An atheist named Diagoras is shown portraits of people who prayed and were saved from death at sea as proof of God's existence.

Diagoras replies, "I see those who were saved, but where are those painted who were shipwrecked?"

4/ Cicero cuts right to the point - we cannot conclude that prayer led to being saved from the sea if we ignore those who prayed and then drowned.

Survivorship bias can lead to a deeply-flawed understanding of cause-and-effect relationships.

Let's look at some examples.

@The_Rumpus is open for essay submissions until February 28, so here’s a #RumpusEssays thread in which our amazing editors share what they would like to see in submissions. Give them a follow and send your essay our way via @submittable

Features Editor @happiestwerther is “still (forever) in love with the researched essays that teach me something about a subject while I also learn about a narrator.” #RumpusEssays

Assistant Features Editor @sarahkasbeer would like to see “essays with unexpected engines / innovative structures / emotional and intellectual depth / good ole narrative tension.” #RumpusEssays

Features Editor @kaytaybayy: “I'd love to see essays that are imbued with kinetic energy. I don't care what they're about. Just sweep me into your experiences and thoughts. Compel me to shake my dust off.” #RumpusEssays

Asst Feat Ed @DJ_theoretical: "I’d love to read about that weird, niche topic you’re obsessed with. Your Pog collection, those ribbon candies that seemingly only grandmas buy, your new obscure hobby. Distract me from the horrible big picture with your hyperfixations."

VALENTINE DAY CELEBRATION: FRSC CAUTIONS MOTORISTS AGAINST EXCESSIVE SPEED, DRUNK DRIVING AND RECKLESSNESS ON THE ROAD.

Owing to the need to ensure a safe and crash free celebration during the 2021 Valentine Day celebration, the Federal Road Safety Corps has warned the teaming community of celebrants and other road users, to desist from indulging in drunk driving, avoid excessive speed,

and resist the temptation to drive recklessly so as to mitigate all incidences of road traffic crashes during the celebration.

The Corps Public Education Officer, @BisiKazeem who made this public, said that the Corps Marshal, Dr Boboye Oyeyemi has directed Commanding Officers across board to double their efforts by ensuring massive deployment of Officers and Men for enhanced visibility,

adequate traffic control, and maximum enforcement of all COVID-19 protocols amongst motorists.