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On the need for urgent decisions & a comprehensive set of measures *today*

"Delayed and tentative decision making will result in the deaths of tens of thousands more people"

Getting worse: several more thousand people in hospital than at April peak: no's still rising

Cases in *all* regions are going up, reflected in hospital admissions.

Every region except NE and NW have more people in hospital than during the first wave.

We don’t yet know if tier 4 is enough to slow or contain covid.

The impact of Xmas mixing is still to come.
Schools will contribute to increasing transmission rate - @IndependentSage chair notes their nuanced position on schools + happy to take questions.

Indy SAGE calling for lockdown AND clear plan for exit from such a lockdown. Calling for proper support for testing + isolation
Vaccination rollout programmes vital - including international support

The impact of long covid also identified alongside horrific scale of death is part of the catastrophe we need to prevent unfolding further
.@IndependentSage highlighting the unbelievable pressure on NHS staff across the UK.

Given the scenes at hospitals around the UK, we cannot afford to underestimate the seriousness of this for everyone
On vaccines: waiting on data for whether the mutations being found will affect their efficacy. Strategy being outlined today intended to support an efficient and effective vaccination programme (including room to address further development required)

More from For later read

Excited we finally have a draft of this paper, which attempts to provide a 'unifying theory' of the long economic divergence between the Middle East & Western Europe

As we see it, there are 3 recent theories that hit on important aspects of the divergence...

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One set of theories focus on the legitimating power of Islam (Rubin, @prof_ahmetkuru, Platteau). This gave religious clerics greater power, which pulled political resources away form those encouraging economic development

But these theories leave some questions unanswered...
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Religious legitimacy is only effective if people
care what religious authorities dictate. Given the economic consequences, why do people remain religious, and thereby render religious legitimacy effective? Is religiosity a cause or a consequence of institutional arrangements?

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Another set of theories focus on the religious proscriptions of Islam, particular those associated with Islamic law (@timurkuran). These laws were appropriate for the setting they formed but had unforeseeable consequences and failed to change as economic circumstances changed

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There are unaddressed questions here, too

Muslim rulers must have understood that Islamic law carried proscriptions that hampered economic development. Why, then, did they continue to use Islamic institutions (like courts) that promoted inefficiencies?

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