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1. From convo on @Morning_Joe today about @DrIbram's new article which asks that progressive policy not be blamed for D losses/underperformance.

One of my main concerns is intraparty factionalism/fighting. Everything a "moderate" & "progressive"

 2. D fights- a R gets a vote. Certainly radical (and yes, defunding police departments IS radical) policy proposals that fall on the outside bands of the distribution are less attractive to this idealized "swing" voter who is, in our minds eye" always a high info, high reasoning.
3. I guess you'd call them a "fine dining" type voter. But we KNOW that actually, most swing voters are NOT like this. Don't believe me- check out @axios Swing Voter Project, which ran focus groups with Obama to Trump voters through the whole cycle. https://t.co/B3WEyCLZF9
4. Indeed, what @richthau learned about America's "deciders" is likely to haunt his sleep for ever as it personified a sticker I keep in my office which is a quote from George Carlin: "Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups." (K.I.M. when we talk "stupid"
5. on my threads about people, we're not talking IQ, or overall stupid. We're talking civics. We're talking about political literacy. Very smart, successful people can't name their senators or their governor & are thus, civically stupid. And I'm sorry, not sorry for labeling them
6. as such. As a country, as a political culture, we're big on rights, but not on responsibilities that come with them. In other words, we're shirkers. Now, to be fair, its not really our fault. Once it became clear that grifting was a lot easier with a dumb public, the dumbing
7. of the public became a feature, not a bug. We basically have no political culture, certainly not one that tells citizens "you must tend to the gardens of your democracy to ensure it grows strong & stays healthy" and that is something we need to start fixing NOW so that in
8. 30 years, we can start to yield some benefits. But I digress. The political commentary/analysis has one frame, one paradigm to discuss political phenomena under, and like many things in the polarized era, it is no longer applicable- but the analysis forges on anyway. Here's a
9. a counterfactual that will demonstrate how little issues matter to election outcomes. The entire GOP has shifted far to the Right & is running on defund the police. I mean think about the GOP platform this fall. That platform, which they didn't bother to pen, was "whatever our
10. aspiring dictator says. And what WAS the aspiring dictator saying? He was saying he planned to restart the family separation program on the border and orphan MORE children heartlessly to join the 600+ already in the fed gov's permanent custody. If you are raped or dying of
11. cancer MAYBE we'll let you get an abortion to save your own life. Maybe. Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, Endangered Species Act- all gutted. I could keep going. Did I mention that the modal position of your average congressional/Senate Republican on the question of "what
12. should the federal gov do to help Americans survive economic disruption from COVID?" is NOTHING. The modal position of Senate Rs- 30+ of them is NO AID. That's bc the entire Republican Party is a party of extremists. All of its positions are now extreme. Its radical wing
13. started to take control of the party in 2010, exerted real influence- I mean enough where the party was radicalized & holding the control hostage- shutting it down over symbolic debt ceiling raises & forces fed workers to go w/o pay, closing down DC, for what amounts to a
14. policy temper-tantrum over Obamacare (they were so upset that 23 million people GOT insurance for the 1st time AND that 100 million of us, for the 1st time got GOOD insurance, insurance that actually paid for everything, that covered preventative shit instead of telling you,
15. if you want mammograms or colonoscopies- pay for it out of pocket. THIS is what had the GOP all a twitter, the biggest irony, of course, being that it was THEIR DAMN PLAN!!! But so extremist & radical was the Republican Party becoming that they shut down the entire country
16. trying to force Obama to veto his own healthcare law. BC THAT's normal behavior from a serious, governing party that appeals to the median voter.

And yet, do you know what happened? In those 2014 Midterms- they GAINED SEATS!!

They completely abandoned the middle of the
17. electorate, they didn't just touch a third rail of American Politics- they RODE that rail like a wave at Mavericks and yet they wiped out the entire Blue Dog Caucus of the Democrats (but only gained a couple more House seats bc @MichaelSteele only left a few behind in his net
18. 63 seat route in the 2010 Midterms, when again, right after destroying the American middle class, as the American economy was still sliding down from their previous management, their superior electioneering led to their 2010 pounding of the Ds by turning centrist policy
19. Obamacare/ACA) into RADICAL policy.

Which brings me to my point. The GOP has been able to fall into total control of extremists (the metamorphosis completed when Trump became the nominee & then cemented the GOP --> MAGA version of the GOP with his "thread the needle" 2016
20. which was accomplished in no small part by the Rep Party's strategic efforts to get Dems to beat themselves (a strategy they are keen to deploy on Dems again for the 2022 Midterms) and PAY NO PENALTY WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE ELECTORATE. Yet, at the same time, the Democrats have
21. taken great pains to be as appealing to moderates/the middle as possible & have made, arguably no gains. They won the presidency, yes, but not just bc of "moderates." They won bc of massive participation surges of Dem coalition voters- in order of surge size-college ed whites
22. Latinos, and Black voters. And its easy to point at the surge size adv of college ed whites & say "see, its not worth investing in voters of color its too hard to turn them out" but what you're doing there (@davidshor) is voters of color are by & large (outside of GA & THANK
23. GOD, the state party chairs in MI, WI, PA, & AZ which themselves ran field on low propensity voters of color) ignored by campaigns- not invested in, or dramatically underinvested in, and then their low turnout is pointed at for justification of low investment. Meanwhile, the
24. 1 group, college ed voters most likely to surge on their own, get the most heavy investment. I mean ludicrous investment. So it should be no surprise that they bury everyone else (it wasn't to me- I predicted it, as well as yuge GOP turnout). Again, to win, you have to match
25. the GOP's ballot %. You can win the "ideas" war, but if the GOP outvotes you, you're losing the race. THIS is one reason why they pay no price for their extremism.

The other is that Dems have never bothered to tie the GOP to their extremism.

Again, we'll be changing that.
26. I want to add- if you enjoy these threads, soon they'll be moving to The Cycle, which will be hosted on @SubstackInc. After a few years of doing everything for free (I could afford to, I had W-2 jobs to support my family!) I am now transitioning to trying my hand at
27. media/writing/podcasting/lectures/etc as a career (as well as Super Pac work) in a weird fusion that I believe no one has ever really done at the same time before. I'm excited about it, bc my vision is that my work the Super Pac (I can't wait to reveal the name- its so hard
28. to keep it a secret from y'all!) will inform my writing/reporting/podcast over on The Cycle, and that I can use The Cycle to bring YOU into the Super Pac, and esp into the creative process of the ad creation room and stuff like that. Why? BC that's what I would want if I was
29. you and not me. When I was a prof- I always tried to make my classes my dream class. Something that would have knocked my socks off when I was an undergrad. I will bring the same mentality to The Cycle. Given this is something I am hoping you will be monetarily invested in
30. I very much want it to deliver for you and give you "value added." So, my goal will be to create a substack that gives as much as it takes and makes you feel like you are learning. Believe it or not, I'm actually very risk adverse. I rem how surprised @OldBullTV was to find
31. that out when he 1st reached out about doing a show. Yes, the lady who twice now has proclaimed w no equivocation that Ds would win the House & then then the presidency months ahead of both contests HATES taking risks. And yet here I am, now shoulders deep into launching not
32. one, but TWO W-9 style gigs that will compromise the whole of her financial future: its terrifying! I know I'm the one that's supposed to be uber confident & bad ass-so I'll def not going to admit that I'm terrified. Like getting a root canal- I just want to get it over with!

More from Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🍌

Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. I think so. I don't think the issue are plans. The issue is that the ability of our govn't to function-to create & enact policy- has been seriously abridged the past decade to the point where it can't function. We've seen virtually no legislation this past decade & pretty


2. much none relying on just "regular order." Although the Ds spent almost a year trying w the ACA before giving up & using a procedural trick in the end. Keep in mind, McConnell changed the operation of senate so that all bills, ALL, had to reach 60 vote threshold in the senate

3. That was a MASSIVE change to the legislative filibuster (a massive abuse of it). It creates a super majority requirement for laws that the Framers didn't design. And given the issue of misrepresentation the senate, which is causing a Tyranny of the Minority, its really shut

4. down the federal lawmaking apparatus. If Ds flip these 2 GA senate seats, the legislative filibuster will be right back in the spotlight bc McConnell will use it to lockdown Biden's legislative agenda. And we'll have to see how Biden responds. I agree that Biden needs to give

5. McConnell an opp to change his behavior, but if he doesn't Biden will have to go w EOs or ending the legislative filibuster. Either that, or getting nothing done. The GOP will seek to do to him what they did to Obama- use control of the senate OR the filibuster to prevent
CRYPTO
Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. We've got @dananessel, killin' like usual on messaging w @HallieJackson on @MSNBC stating, objectively (accurately) that if SCOTUS were to grant the relief sought by TX & these other states & invalidate the votes of millions of Americans due to COMPLETELY FABRICATED claims of

2. of fraud, it would be the end of democracy in America. PERIOD. It would serve, functionally, as the moment of SC's succession, Dec 20, 1860 & also as a function of anti-democratic, unpatriotic, and TREASONOUS behavior post a presidential election they simply didn't want to

3. accept and spend 4 years living under. So instead, they "invalidated" it by refusing to continue to be part of the U.S. Here, if the Court was to play along (and to be crystal clear, the ONLY constitutional, pro-America position here is a full and unequivocal rejection of this

4. suit and frankly, a "supreme" legal tongue lashing at the ideologues that now control the modern Republican Party and by controlling it, have now forced the United States of America into its first constitutional crisis since the fields of her were strewn with bodies and blood

5. as she ripped herself apart to rid herself of her original sin of slavery, and in that process lost 620,000 Americans which at that time was 2% of the country's population. That Trump & his good squad fabricated a story of trucks in the night sneaking in 100Ks worth of ballots
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. Yes, removing @DebHaalandNM from NM CD 1 intros risk on losing the seat, but maybe less now that I am connecting w @RepSeanMaloney.

The GOP will start w descriptive representation on this one. In other words, they will seek to run a Native American. If there IS a Republican

2. American active in politics that resides (or can be said to reside!) in CD 1, they will run that person. This is bc the GOP is esp good at the "biography" end of politics in these specials- IE: Mike Garcia in CA 25.

Ds *think* they're good too. But they're not! All D's needed

3. in CA 25's special election to ensure they held that seat was a qualified Latino nominee who passably personable. They literally GAVE that seat away under this myth that it would be too hard to beat Garcia when the whole election was a story of % R ballots relative to % D

4. ballots- as we ALL watched in the special election. And even with a candidate people told me was "flawed", "a mess" or even "crazy" Ds lost the damn seat again, sealed the loss in the fall general by 333 votes! If that doesn't hurt YJEM, it hurts ME. Makes me want to PUKE!!


5. And although white people, and most particularly white men, who are, in most cases, still in the positions that make the decisions for these things and THUS leave their orgs vulnerable to blind spots that they themselves have huge incentives to not get stuck on, bc like all
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
Yes, actually that's kind of the problem these days.

All the 🔥takes will be shown to be wrong once the voter file data & analysis like this one w the FULL RESULTS get done, which is why I'VE NOT PUBLISHED MY 🔥TAKE IN NYT yet

We'll have to decide if we want it fast, or right


There is ONE STORY in elections right now and its education. Its not rural vs urban, or Black and White, Latino and White

Its educated versus non-educated

And its global

1. I'll add that it's very imp that Ds understand, crystal clear, this fact (that edu is the divide that rules all other divides). After Parscale's success in 2020 the GOP will now double down on their efforts to come after non-college educated, non-white voters bc now they KNOW

2. they're gettable. The 2018 and 2020 cycle were "feelers." No doubt donors and strategists were skeptical. Now they have the analytic proof and the $ will be flowing. This is one reason that I decided that I had to get into electioneering myself. Someone is going to need to be

3. there talking to these voters from the Left (and talking to them with effective messaging- for ex they don't give two shits about insider trading corruption) or you'll see even more erosion in the D's vote share among non-college educated non-white voters, I'm sure of it. Its
POLITICS
Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. In some respects @IgnatiusPost is right- @JoeBiden's cabinet IS built for comfort- BUT its imp to rem the context.

That comfort is a function of the extensive exp this cabinet has- the antithesis of Trump's appointments.

This country NEEDS the antithesis of Trump's cabinet


2. But its also built for another purpose. Its built to be an olive branch to one man- @senatemajldr who is expected to yield either total control over confirmation, or at the least, great influence. Its meant to signal to him that Biden is serious



2. about his "governing for all" campaign pledge & asking for a reset moment in American politics post-Trump. Something he continues to hope for even as more than 1/2 of the House GOP Caucus signs onto an amicus brief to the Supreme Court of the United States that argues to end

3. democracy itself, as @SteveSchmidtSES articulates so clearly in this video that every American should see. Biden could not have presented to the GOP Senate, to McConnell, a more serious peace offering than this cabinet and its a good move that if it

4. works would pull America back from the brink of a civic collapse. So it MUST be tried even if people like myself think the odds of success are depressingly low. It simply MUST BE TRIED. BC if we are to plummet off the cliff, it needs to McConnell & the GOP who on their own are
POLITICS

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Boz Tchividjian
Boz Tchividjian
@BozT
The evils committed by Ravi Zacharias were enabled by a toxic organizational leadership that is evidenced by how these same leaders responded when confronted about the widespread and ongoing abuses being perpetrated by the namesake of the institution. 1/29

Please take time to read this piece by @DavideAFrench and the 26-page letter written by a first-hand witness. Here are just some of the excerpts: 2/29

"At one point, Ravi suggested to me that the Task Force “issue a statement that they [the Thompsons] are hooligans, they are scoundrels, they are thugs, they are serial extortioners.” If we didn’t do that, he told me, he would ask his attorney to do so on his behalf." 3/29

"...I distinctly recall Ravi & Sanj mocking the Thompsons’ marriage & scornfully predicting how soon Brad & Lori Anne would get divorced. “I predict their marriage won’t survive the year,” Ravi asserted with laughter. “A year?” replied Sanj. “I wouldn’t give it six months!” 4/29

"In 2017, in the early stages of his RICO against the Thompsons, Ravi would often invoke Kelly [his attorney], making statements such as “my attorney said we are going to crush them.”" 5/29
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\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8I Support Our Military & Law Enforcement\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8
🇺🇸I Support Our Milita...
@TheWiseOwl_AZ
1. On Fri. 8 Jan. Military Intel Contact said to keep phones on, charged and ready for Tier 4B notification as the RV release was being expedited and our start was at any time.
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Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr
stacks are eating the world

business used to be easiest to comprehend via a) market-based logic of horizontal vs. vertical STRUCTURE, b) professionalization/specialization based FUNCTION c) core competencies based BEHAVIORS

this has pretty much collapsed in the last decade

Structure = sclerosis
Functional specialization = bureaucracy
competencies = inertial habits

"Stack" thinking instead lets technology structure (rather than market structure) drive business org logic

Companies seem to do well when they identify an entire stack of technologies they are good at (not just point bits) and organize to conform to its logic. There is a "full-stack" dimension of technical specialization that is the spine of the org

It feels buzzwordy, but it really is getting to be that way. AI stack, decarbonization stack, mobility stack, electrification stack... some end-to-end pathway of turning physics into economics via layers of tech artistically baked together like a cake
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Ingo Rohlfing
Ingo Rohlfing
@ingorohlfing
There is a highly instructive symposium on "Veil of Ignorance" #ProcessTracing in the new @APSAtweets QMMR publication https://t.co/nxqEQ9HaRz There is lots to say ab it. For now, I want to focus on whether (causal) qualitative research has a problem w/ confirmation bias that 1/

needs to be addressed.
In short, Veil of Ignorance process tracing aims to blindfold the data collectors and analysts to the hypotheses to reduce risk of confirmation bias.
Proposal receives a lot of criticism by all respondents, partly for valid reasons, partly not, IMO 2/

If there was no bigger issue with confirmation bias, there would not be much benefit in talking about blinding in qualitative research.
As Beach notes, the intro to the symposium does not present evidence that bias is a problem. This is correct, but there is also no evidence 3/

that confirmation bias is not a problem. It's an absence of evidence situation with regard to comprehensive, direct evidence, i.e. from verification studies of qualitative research (for studies that are built on an epistemology for which the idea of verification makes sense). 4/

However, I'd say there is circumstantial evidence that confirmation bias is a problem.
1) Evidence for confirmation bias in quantitative research: The developments around #OpenScience and transparency in quantitative research in different disciplines present diverse evidence 5/
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Aaron Hanlon
Aaron Hanlon
@AaronRHanlon
1) Dreaded thread on why I think the response to postcritique is so vitriolic. Short version: Because literary studies is a discipline in search of an application.

2) Before I go on, I'll say from the outset that many in lit studies explicitly reject the idea that the field *should* have an application. My opinion is that's fine if you want to do book clubs, but if you want an institution you can't ignore that difficult issue. But anyway...

3) The evidence by this point is overwhelming that when lit scholars talk about 'method' we're actually just talking about ourselves: 'ways of reading,' 'how we argue,' 'phenomenology of reading,' etc. etc.

4) David Kurnick nicely illustrates this phenomenon:


5) But none of this is method discussion. Talking about ourselves, how we approach our objects of study, our motives and objectives, our commitments, etc. would be the *beginning* of a method convo in every other discipline. In lit studies it's the *end*, or the whole convo!
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Robin Berjon
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Recently, the @CNIL issued a decision regarding the GDPR compliance of an unknown French adtech company named "Vectaury". It may seem like small fry, but the decision has potential wide-ranging impacts for Google, the IAB framework, and today's adtech. It's thread time! 👇

It's all in French, but if you're up for it you can read:
• Their blog post (lacks the most interesting details): https://t.co/PHkDcOT1hy
• Their high-level legal decision: https://t.co/hwpiEvjodt
• The full notification: https://t.co/QQB7rfynha

I've read it so you needn't!

Vectaury was collecting geolocation data in order to create profiles (eg. people who often go to this or that type of shop) so as to power ad targeting. They operate through embedded SDKs and ad bidding, making them invisible to users.

The @CNIL notes that profiling based off of geolocation presents particular risks since it reveals people's movements and habits. As risky, the processing requires consent — this will be the heart of their assessment.

Interesting point: they justify the decision in part because of how many people COULD be targeted in this way (rather than how many have — though they note that too). Because it's on a phone, and many have phones, it is considered large-scale processing no matter what.
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Dani\xeblle Stotijn
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NESARA / GESARA explained for all who are not aware.

"The End of Poverty, The End of Debt, The Beginning of a New Golden Age!"

No Poverty, No Hunger, No Debt, Only Global Prosperity and Peace for ALL

NESARA will merge with GESARA

N = National (US)
G = Global
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Erik Torenberg
Erik Torenberg
@eriktorenberg
1/ Someone emailed me asking how to break into VC, so I wanted to answer on Twitter where others could see and contribute to the conversation.

2/ “Being a VC” can mean a lot of different things, so it’s worth asking:

What actual activities do you want to do?

- Deep market analysis?
- Be in the flow of information and people?
- Make deals?
- Work closely w/ founders over time (e.g take board seats?)
- Manage capital?

3/ It’s worth specifying what type of VC you might like to become — as there are different archetypes. E.g.

- Benchmark (Lead series A/B - couple investments a year)
- First Round (Lead seed rounds, partner w/ a few companies a year)
- SV Angel (Make lots of seed investments)

4/ Continued:

Expa - Incubate companies

YC / Village Global - Build a platform to help entrepreneurs at scale

Do you want to join a firm or start one? There’s a lot to consider.

Different paths will require different skillsets & sets of experiences.

5/ Since the person who wrote the email is a young person trying to break into VC by joining a firm (and who doesn’t want to start a company), I’ll tailor this tweet storm to that goal. There’s some overlap.
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Buzz Chronicles
Buzz Chronicles
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@SaveToBookmarks Namaste! You can find it here. Original tweet by @AchuthArora: "@OllieEmberson @buzz_chronicles @rattibha @SaveToBookmarks save as Workouts". Thanks! ✌

Hi! Pleasure is mine. Original tweet by @SaveToBookmarks: "@AchuthArora @OllieEmberson @buzz_chronicles @rattibha Cool mate!

I saved this ...". See You soon! 👌
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Kevin Murphy
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Okay look - I didn’t grow up with comic books. But I read stacks of science fiction digests and I kit-bashed model cars into fantasy rods, and just tried to maintain a low profile until I could get out of the house. So you could say I’m a distant cousin of the comic book fan. /1

And sometimes one’s childhood passion follows them into adulthood, sometimes not, sometimes as an adult one finds a passion they never had as a child and embraces it. For me, that must include getting involved with a puppet show at the age of thirty. /2

So who’s to say whose passion’s legitimate and whose is bogus? Nobody. Someone might indict your passion but they have no ground to stand on and should be dismissed out of hand. /3

Maybe they’re envious that you have a passion, maybe they think that their passion is cooler than yours, or maybe they’re just insecure, who knows. Doesn’t matter. /4

What matters is that if something gives you joy, and in the process doesn’t hurt others, then by all means follow it. It’s how we explore our secret hopes, our shadow sides, our inner character. /5
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