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Saved by @jacobhtml

Ok...just spent a few looking at The Weekend’s page and it is weird AF!!! First off is this banner pic he has...take a look at it...a CLOSE LOOK AT IT....see all the ‘strange’ images he has within it? Notice the dice...all the 6’s...serpent tongue....
NOTHING TO SEE HERE.👇thread

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Ankur Warikoo
Ankur Warikoo
@warikoo
How I created content in 2020

A thread...

Back in Aug 2016, I started creating content to share my experiences as an entrepreneur.
Over 3 years I had put out 1,200+ hours of content - posting every week without


Little did I know that something I started almost 4 years back would give my life an entirely new direction.

At the end of 2019, my biggest platform was LinkedIn with ~700K followers.

In Jan 2020, I decided to build a team that would help me with the content.

I ran a month long recruitment drive to hire a team of interns.

It comprised 4 detailed rounds - starting with my loved 20 questions, then an assignment, then a WhatsApp video round and finally F2F.

Through 1,200+ applications, I finally selected 6 profiles, starting March.

I am a firm believer in @peterthiel's one task, one person philosophy
So the team was structured such that everyone was responsible for ONLY one task

1. Content ideas
2. Videography
3. Video editing
4. LinkedIn (+TikTok) distribution
5. FB+IG distribution
6. YouTube distribution
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Sahil Bloom
Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom
Survivorship Bias 101

History is written by the victors. But if we exclusively focus on these successes, we allow survivorship bias to distort our understanding of the world.

But what is "survivorship bias" and how does it work?

Here's Survivorship Bias 101!

👇👇👇


1/ First, a few definitions.

Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures).

When we do so, we miss the true "base rates" of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.

2/ When we completely ignore failures, we lose our ability to correctly identify the differences between successes and failures.

Put simply, exclusively focusing on successes may actually inhibit our ability to identify (and replicate) the actions that led to such success.


3/ Cicero wrote on the topic over 2,000 years ago.

An atheist named Diagoras is shown portraits of people who prayed and were saved from death at sea as proof of God's existence.

Diagoras replies, "I see those who were saved, but where are those painted who were shipwrecked?"


4/ Cicero cuts right to the point - we cannot conclude that prayer led to being saved from the sea if we ignore those who prayed and then drowned.

Survivorship bias can lead to a deeply-flawed understanding of cause-and-effect relationships.

Let's look at some examples.
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Sarang Sood
Sarang Sood
@SarangSood
THREAD ON IRONFLY

These days the most preferred strategy for option sellers due to improved margins is IRONFLY. It's essentially a short straddle with long strangle. Long strangle acting as 'WINGS', which help in capping the unlimited risk associated with a short straddle.(1/n)

You can also view the position as a combination of Cal & Put credit spreads, if that makes it more easy for you.

There are 3 important things to understand while trading this strategy:

1) Initial size of the Wings
2) Risk Management
3) Adjustments

(2/n)

Since we are selling an ATM straddle, the 1st question is how far our wings should be? Ideally i sell .50 delta straddle & buy .20 or .10 OTM strangle, depending on my view on volatility. So the distance of wings depends on the IV setup. Higher the IVs, greater the distance.(3/n)

If you don't understand greeks, then ideally with 30 days to expiry (dte), wings should be around 300pts either side. If your trading in weekly then it should be not more than 200pts. Higher the premiums, higher the distance as we have more cushion of theta. (4/n)

It is important to understand that we need to reduce the distance of wings with time so as to manage our RISK in gap openings or sudden volatile move. So for eg. if you started with 300pt wings with 30dte, the wings wouldn't give the same protection when there is 7dte. (5/n)
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Elbridge Colby
Elbridge Colby
@ElbridgeColby
There is some valuable analysis in this report, but on the defense front this report is deeply flawed. There are other sections of value in report but, candidly, I don't think it helps us think through critical question of Taiwan defense issues in clear & well-grounded way. 1/


Normally as it might seem churlish to be so critical, but @cfr is so high-profile & the co-authors so distinguished I think it’s key to be clear. If not, people - including in Beijing - could get the wrong idea & this report could do real harm if influential on defense issues. 2/

BLUF: The defense discussion in this report does not engage at the depth needed to add to this critical debate. Accordingly conclusions in report are ill-founded - & in key parts harmful/misleading, esp that US shldnt be prepared defend Taiwan directly (alongside own efforts). 3/

The root of the problem is that report doesn't engage w the real debate on TWN defense issues or, frankly, the facts as knowable in public. Perhaps the most direct proof of this: The citations. There is nothing in the citations to @DeptofDefense China Military Power Report...4/

Nor to vast majority of leading informed sources on this like Ochmanek, the @RANDCorporation Scorecard, @CNAS, etc. This is esp salient b/c co-authors by their own admission have v little insight into contemporary military issues. & both last served in govt in Bush 43. 5/
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Bernie
Bernie
@bealangi
This is a what I’d call a funny tale about how you never know how things are going to circle back:
(Long thread warning, but I think it's worth it)
1/?

My childhood was messed up. My mother was an abusive alcoholic and mentally ill. In 1995 when I was 12 years old, my parent's split. Originally the courts stated I had to stay with my mother, which I believe was the court's default decision at that point. 2/?

Truth be told, is usually the best choice for a child, just not in my case.
For my own safety I eventually ran away from her to live with my dad. I left behind my dog (who was also 12), and my three cats (Rocky 8, Jewel 10, and Scamper 12 years old). 3/?

After about a year of fighting in family court, my father was given full custody of me. I never spoke to my mother again.

My dad, being an electrician, would come home from work after particularly hard days and jokingly say, "Just don't work in electrical Bernie." 4/?

As a kid I didn't fully understand he was joking, so I took it to heart. I had a natural talent for the sciences and math, so I studied Physics and Math at Dalhousie University before switching to Marketing and Statistical Analysis at Saint Mary's University.
5/?
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Kevin Murphy
Kevin Murphy
@kwmurphy
Okay look - I didn’t grow up with comic books. But I read stacks of science fiction digests and I kit-bashed model cars into fantasy rods, and just tried to maintain a low profile until I could get out of the house. So you could say I’m a distant cousin of the comic book fan. /1

And sometimes one’s childhood passion follows them into adulthood, sometimes not, sometimes as an adult one finds a passion they never had as a child and embraces it. For me, that must include getting involved with a puppet show at the age of thirty. /2

So who’s to say whose passion’s legitimate and whose is bogus? Nobody. Someone might indict your passion but they have no ground to stand on and should be dismissed out of hand. /3

Maybe they’re envious that you have a passion, maybe they think that their passion is cooler than yours, or maybe they’re just insecure, who knows. Doesn’t matter. /4

What matters is that if something gives you joy, and in the process doesn’t hurt others, then by all means follow it. It’s how we explore our secret hopes, our shadow sides, our inner character. /5
CULTURE
Learning @ Prakash
Learning @ Prakash
@Prakashplutus
My simple Approach towards Breakout trading :

1. Scan stocks on the basis of FTDB Scanner.

2. Buy stocks with EMA-9> EMA-21> EMA-63 > EMA 200 & Volume 200% up

3. maximum SL of 1.25X ( ATR )

4. I do breakout trading only in Nifty -500 stocks

#StockMarket
#trading
#Nifty
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Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
SRI CHAMPAKADHAMA SWAMY, BANNERGHATTA HILL, BENGALURU (KAR)
#bharatmandir

The shrine is dedicated to Sri Vishnu along with Devi Lakshmi and Bhoodevi.
It is built in an area full of Champaka trees.
As champaka flowers are offered to Sri Vishnu here, it is called Champakadhama.


It is believed that King Janmejaya had sarpa-dosha. To get rid of it, he took bath in the nearby pond. He emerged with a golden body and sarpa-dosha was also removed. The pond is called Swarnamukhi and believed to have curative powers.
Sri Vishnu murti was consecrated by him.


It is also believed that this forest area was the Dandakaranya where Sri Ram stayed in exile.
Some believe that the original shrine was built by Pandavas.
The pushkarni/pond is emptied once a year so that the rock at the bottom (which has image of Anjaneya) may be worshipped.
ALL
Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
MEENAKSHI AMMAN, MADURAI (TN)
#bharatmandir #navratri2021

A paadal Petra sthalam where Shiva took the form of Sundareswarar (the handsome one) and married Devi Parvati (Meenakshi).
Devi is also known by the name Angayarkanni (mother with the beautiful fish eyes).
@GunduHuDuGa


Devi Meenakshi emerged from yagna fire as a 3 year old girl when Pandyan King Malayadwaja and Kanchanamalai were praying for a child.
It is said that Devi was born with three breasts and there was a prophesy that her superfluous breast would melt away when she met her husband.


Devi ruled over Madurai and captured Indralok. She went on to capture Kailasha. When she saw Shiva, her 3rd breast disappeared and she realised that Shiva would be her consort.
The divine marriage was attended by all Devas and Sri Vishnu (as her brother) gave her hand to Shiva.


It is said that Indra found a swayambhu lingam at Kadamba Vanam. He placed it in Madurai where the kshetram stands. Here, Shiva is seen on the vehicle of Indra.
The Golden Lotus Tank is said to be the place where a golden lotus blossomed for the puja performed by Indra.


The Meenakshi Thirukalyanam festival is celebrated in the Chithirai month to mark the divine marriage of Meenakshi Amman. The festival includes a procession where Meenakshi and Sundareshwara travel in a chariot and Sri Vishnu gives away his sister in marriage to Shiva.
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Talha
Talha
@dhiblawe1990
Thread: History of Mogadishu and it’s conquest by Imaam Al Yaqubi


One of the First Imaams of the Hiraab Imamate was Mohamed Ibn Imaam Ahmed ibn Imam Ahmed Ibn Imaam Mohamoud Ibn Imaam Cumar Halol Al Yacquubi (Abgaal) during the year 1097 hijri.


After the collapse of the Ajuuran Abgaal nomads from the interior had started moving to take over the strategic port town of Mogadishu which was then under the muzzafar dynasty. By the 1600s Abgaal warriors had captured the city and set up their base in shingaani.


Mogadishu at the time was a large and well known port town. The Abgaal clan taking over control allowed them to obtain political power and world wide recognition.


Under Imaam Yaqubi’s time in power it’s reported that French merchants had arrived at the port in 1701
and stayed for 11 days. They had attempted to take the city but were successfully repulsed.
HISTORY