There’s a recurring misunderstanding/misinterpretation of public procurement numbers/costs, that does no one any good. If there’s going to be a debate let it at least be based on facts/reality not conjecture, not knee-jerk responses.

Another #thread 🙃

A few days ago I complained about a bad piece by @GuardianNigeria, in which they were busied themselves dividing distance by cost and then proceeding to make wild comparisons between rail projects. While also getting cost wrong in some cases. https://t.co/88X7hvyn51
The nuances of procurement, whether public or private sector, can hardly be accurately conveyed in your typical news headline, especially when headlines are driven mostly by virality ambitions. Always good to try and understand full picture before jumping to conclusions.
Important point: It’s very necessary for citizens to be able to assess public procurement projects for transparency & cost-efficiency. So I’m not saying don’t ask questions. Far from it. I’m simply saying all assessments MUST be based on a full picture, not headlines / conjecture
Take example of Super Tucanos. You’d read somewhere that Nigeria signed an almost $600m deal with the US Govt for 12 aircraft. Guess what our papers will do 😂

They’ll do their typical ‘dividing’ and say Nigeria paid $50m per aircraft. (The plane is not that expensive btw).
The reality is of course different. Nigeria paid not just for 12 aircraft, but ALSO for (according to the agreement): “all associated training, spare parts, aviation and ground support equipment, and HANGAR, facilities, and INFRASTRUCTURE required to support the program.”
If we already had a HANGAR for these planes (and other supporting infrastructure) it’s very likely we would have paid less. It’s that simple.
A simple analogy is this: I tell you I bought an iPhone for N600,000, and you immediately say I’ve been scammed or I inflated the cost, because you bought your own iPhone for N250,000. Without asking what model of iPhone I bought, and what the specs are. Did I also buy insurance?
It’s the same thing with this Automated Fare System. You hear eTicketing and just assume it’s ‘app and website’. How much be app, lol. Not realizing it includes lots of hardware and devices, software licensing, as well as being for a TEN YEAR period of operation + maintenance.
It is only when you’re aware of all this that any sensible debate can then be had, if we are being honest. There’s no value in ignorance, unless that ignorance leads to a desire(that is acted upon) for information and facts. Knee jerk responses are always embarrassing + unhelpful

More from Finance

Ok here is the explanation. Grab a cup of coffee and read on. If you have not read/noticed this, you will see intraday options movement in a new light.


Say we have two options, one 50 delta ATM options and another 30 delta OTM option. Normally for a 100 point move, the ATM option will move 50 points and the OTM option will move 30 points. But in a high volatile environment, the OTM option will also move nearly 50 points

To understand why this happens, first understand why an ATM option is 50 delta. An ATM option has the probability of 50% of expiring as ITM. The price just has to close a rupee above the strike for the CE to be ITM and vice versa for PEs

Now think of a highly volatile day like today. If someone is asked where the BNF will close for the day or expiry, no one can answer. BNF can close freakin anywhere, That makes every option of an equal probability of being ITM. So all options have a 50% probability of being ITM

Hence, when a huge volatile move starts, all OTM options behave like ATM options. This phenomenon was first observed in the Black Monday crash of 1987 at Wall Street, which also gave rise to the volatility skew/smirk

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