BC FINANCE
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

1/x Since I promised a few investors outside Sweden/Nordics to look deeper into $CDON, with my negative customer biases aside, here's a short thread;

Let's first go through the negatives

 2/x I really understand the excitement when you put on the "local dominant marketplace"-glasses and start comparing CDON multiples to the likes of $AMZN, $MELI, $SE or whatever. But with boots on the ground I can assure you, that they are *nothing* of the sort. At least yet.
3/x Just looking at GMV/revenue, after >20y in business, an "everything store", CDON doesn't even come near other local niche players like $BHG (8bSEK) or $BOOZT (4bSEK) and other private companies. They are closer to $LYKO in size, who are only selling hair & beauty..
4/x Unfortunately the brand is very much on decline (especially among young ppl) since the website has been mistreated for years and years, so I think they have to work extremely hard on building trust + enhance customer experience to even have a change long term.
5/x Like I wrote yesterday we have a very divided (in a good way) eCommerce market in the Nordics, with lots of amazing niche players with top notch customer experience. To put it in words you understand, we are a more $SHOP like region with independent businesses.
6/x Therefore I can't really see the value that a big marketplace would bring to the table (also why I think $AMZN are too late), since I believe we are too eCom-established for that type of buying. CDON have tried since 2013 when 3P Marketplace was launched.
7/x Let's say that I'm wrong and the "Everything Store" approach might work here, without incentives for neither customers (very bad experience/history) nor sellers (most of the e-retailers have a wonderful biz on their own) I think it will be hard to get the flywheel going.
8/x BUT the pandemic might have flipped the script a little. Some companies NEED to go online fast, but lack the digital presence/relationship w/ customers, so the CDON Third Party solution is probably a good start. I think that might add a fair amount of GMV growth right now.
9/x Sum of negatives;

Brand on decline, needs a fixer upper.

History of slow growth, still no scale to talk about.

Tough competition $AMZN $ZAL + low incentives for merchants (although "why not, it's low cost" is a fair argument).

No environment for Everything Stores imo.
10/x On the positive side I really enjoy listening to their new CEO who seems competent and aggressive around their growth ambitions. The new facelift on the site also helps with customer experience, even though delivery time varies immensely and communication still is very poor.
11/x The shift to a pure 3P business model is of course great (although I can't figure out why it has taken such a long time to transition, since the launch 2013?) for scalability, which Q3 seem to prove with 80% gross margins (~29% total in Q2 I believe) for marketplace revenue.
12/x So even if I have a hard time seeing $CDON anywhere near as dominant as the $MELI's of the world, they will probably still have a place in the region for the forseeable future. So the bull case is dead in my eyes, but the base case might be alive and kicking...
13/x With the new margin profile in the making + recent growth spurt w/ newly added merchants (+100% GMV in Q3, pandemic boosted or not something is going very right) the stock trades at a discount with consideration to margin expansion, despite the recent run-up.
14/x At ~400 SEK valuation is around 10x LTM Gross Profit, with ongoing margin expansion, or 1.25x GMV.

EV/GP comps (LTM)
$MELI 61x (1/3 fintech + insane network effects)
$OZON 40x
$ZAL 7x
$ETSY 26x
$EBAY 5x
$LYKO 7x
$AMZN 11x
$JD 8x
$ALE.WA 40x
$BOOZT 6x
15/x When looking at "peers", as I said, I still see a discount. But with $ETSY (growing faster + great brand + huge scale) and $ALE.WA (very established + lots of optionality) on 3x GMV, I find a 1-1.5x multiple fair today for CDON considering large execution risk.
16/x So at 100-200 SEK I admit it would probably have been a buy for me, but unfortunately my bias towards CDON as a customer made me look the other way. At 400 I really need to see more great numbers to stay interested, and are not willing to bet on it despite (some) discount.
17/x Some ppl who I wrote with about it yesterday and might be interested @pbcinc @LiviamCapital @AlexWhite1812 @GetBenchmarkCo @deucetrade @hungry_cap @tjylha @outofWACC

More from Finance

Private Chad
Private Chad
@Privatechad_
My Chads, institutions and retail are entering the DeFi space at unprecedented volume. One of the key primitives in DeFi will be the securitization and tranching of DeFi and is still massively undervalued. Enter https://t.co/Gx4H3hIzNg ( $SFI ).

Don't worry, let me ELI5.

1/ Alright so securitization and tranching, that's a mouthful. 👅💦

Let's take a step back. If you look at any financial activity within DeFi, whether it is yield farming, lending or liquidity providing, there are risks involved.

2/ As an honest farmer / liquidity provider, the rewards are yield, and the risk is losing your funds due to e.g. smart contract risk and (potentially) IL.

As an honest lender, the rewards are interest, and risk is default of the borrower.

3/ 99% of the current retail participants don't use portfolio risk management in their DeFi activities. We farm a bit, IL a bit, loan and borrow a bit and hope we make gains at the end of the day. For institutions, portfolio management is much different.

4/ The problem for institutions to enter such DeFi activities as yield farming, liquidity providing and lending/borrowing, is that it's inherently risky and not quantifiable with variable rewards. We early adopters don't mind this risk, but this prevents adoption by institutions.
FINANCE
Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
Kostas 👨‍💼 📈 💸...
@itsKostasWithK
If you want to become financially independent and don't know where to start, here is a thread that will help you get started

/THREAD/

1. Review your expenses and make a budget

It will help you see where you overspend, make a plan to save, pay down debt and start


2. Set your investing and retirement goals

How much do you need to support yourself in retirement and when do you want to


3. The earlier you start investing, the better.

Here's why and how time and compounding can become your


4. Invest in an index fund

It's easy, safe, cheap, and the best choice for a beginner in investing, with not much time for
FINANCE
Advertisement
Grant Williams
Grant Williams
@ttmygh
1/ I'm thrilled to announce the launch of my new website, a one-stop shop for all the content I'm creating.

There you'll find links to all my podcasts, the TTMYGH newsletter, and other exciting future projects.

2/ In 2020, I reignited my passion for interviewing brilliant people by launching The Grant Williams Podcast in various forms, including The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, and The Narrative Game.


3/ Starting February 1, I'm taking the bold step of moving these podcasts completely behind a paywall.

For the very affordable price of only $10 a month, listeners can gain access to the Copper Tier of https://t.co/fxUfH8maI4, which includes all current & future podcasts.


4/ Why am I doing this? First and foremost, I aspire to create VALUABLE content. By definition, if something is priced at $0, it isn’t valuable. The time, effort and creativity that goes into these episodes is substantial. To keep doing them properly, they can no longer be free.

5/ I also strongly believe content creators should be able to make a living creating content. If everything is free, that’s not possible. I never seriously considered accepting outside sponsors – complete integrity is too critical to me.
FINANCE
Matt Allen
Matt Allen
@investmattallen
12 charts every investor should know:

1. History of the stock market in one chart


2. The Psychology of a Market Cycle


3. "Experts" will always give you smart reasons to sell in the short term, but you will regret it in the long term


4. Largest companies by market cap (1960-2022)


5. Compounding is the 8th wonder of the world
FINANCE
Subhadip Nandy
Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
The most common problem faced by day-traders and it's easy solution which is extremely difficult to implement.
A thread.
( uses concepts I have discussed many times before in separate threads)

Problem : I have a good system, I understand charts and/or price action, but I simply can't make money. I hold my losses too long or ( this is most common) I get out of profitable positions too fast and cannot sit for the whole move

At many firms at NASDAQ, day-traders are seen as elite sportspersons playing in a difficult taxing game. That's why, they have regular sessions with sports psychologists. They are advised to follow the basic routine of sportspersons.
Train ---- Play tournaments --- Rest

The cycle repeats

We retail day-traders here neither rest nor train.

Rest = taking time off markets
Train = trading in markets in training mode

Understanding REST is easy, simply take time off markets and spend time with family or do something you love
FINANCE

You May Also Like

christmas cheer liz bruenig
christmas cheer liz br...
@ebruenig
one of the things i like about Batman is that it's fundamentally about being orphaned, and being an orphan — how this guy stays tethered to the world in his own weird, abstract, extrajudicial way when he feels that his link to it has been violently severed

Batman does this by permanently recapitulating his own trauma: solving crimes for other people, protecting them. But that's actually just the beginning; he also recapitulates his own experience of orphanness by essentially raising several orphans

Dick is an orphan in the traditional sense: dead parents. Batman sees it happen. Jason, less so: missing dad, known mom who eventually dies. Tim, even less so: parents are around a while, and involved, before both dying. Carrie, even less than that: negligent parents.

Steph: evil father, who openly works against her. And then there's Damian, whose parents are both alive and yet both have identities that totally obliterate their role as his parents. He doesn't relate to them as a mother and father; he can't, and neither can they.

In all these different cases, Batman tries all these different ways of making orphanness for them not what it was for him: Either by trying to teach them the (arguably poor) coping skills early that he learned over a very long time, or by literally legally adopting them, etc.
CULTURE
foone
foone
@Foone
An interesting set of games that I've been vaguely interested in since I was a kid, after seeing one at a friend's house and never being able to find it again, was the BATTLES IN A DISTANT DESERT/BATTLES ON DISTANT PLANETS series.


These are turn-based wargames for windows 3.x, sharing the same engine.
Battles in a Distant Desert is from 1992, and is based on the first Iraq war (Desert Storm)


and Battles on Distant Planets is from 1991, and takes place in SPACE!
I'm pretty sure this is the one I played as a kid.


They've got 3 options to play with:
* Player vs. Player
* Player vs. Computer
* Computer vs. Computer

So it's a 0-2 player game!


They also did a DOS strategy game called "STARDATE 2140.2: GALACTIC CONQUEST" in 1990, but it seems to be lost.
All the games share an experimental AI system based on neural networks.
FUN
Advertisement
\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0932\u0940 \u0939\u093f\u0924\u0947\u0936 \u0905\u0935\u0938\u094d\u0925\u0940
श्रीमाली हितेश अवस्थी...
@HiteshAwasthi89
Varahi Amman, Madurai, Tamilnadu

Vaarahi is one of the Saivite Shakti deities with the group of goddesses known as SAPTAMATAS.
They are: Brahmi, Maheshwari, Kaumari, Vaishnavi, Vaarahi, Mahendri and Chamundi. 1/n


They are the Shakti (female) equivalents of their male counterparts. Vaarahi is the Shakti of Bhairavar who is one of the Amsam of Bhairavar.Created from the boar avatara of Vishnu, Vaarahi is often associated with Goddess Kamala (one of the Mahavidyas). 2/n


She is also called Dandini (Lady Commander of the forces of the Mother-Goddess, symbolizing the might of SriVidya). As Vaarahi ("hog-faced" or "the great consumer") she destroys evil forces that obstructs the devotees' progress, paralyses the enemies 3/n


and led the devotees ultimately to SriVidyas. She is also called Panchami). With Kurukalla, she is accorded the parental status to Sri-Chakra (Lalita Tripura-Sundari). While Kurukalla represents the full moon, Vaarahi represents the new-moon. 4/4

Jai Maa Varahi 🙏


Tag for 📷 credit
ALL
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
Master Thread of all my threads!

Hello!! 👋

• I have curated some of the best tweets from the best traders we know of.

• Making one master thread and will keep posting all my threads under this.

• Go through this for super learning/value totally free of cost! 😃

1. 7 FREE OPTION TRADING COURSES FOR


2. THE ABSOLUTE BEST 15 SCANNERS EXPERTS ARE USING

Got these scanners from the following accounts:

1. @Pathik_Trader
2. @sanjufunda
3. @sanstocktrader
4. @SouravSenguptaI
5. @Rishikesh_ADX


3. 12 TRADING SETUPS which experts are using.

These setups I found from the following 4 accounts:

1. @Pathik_Trader
2. @sourabhsiso19
3. @ITRADE191
4.


4. Curated tweets on HOW TO SELL STRADDLES.

Everything covered in this thread.
1. Management
2. How to initiate
3. When to exit straddles
4. Examples
5. Videos on
OPTION SELLING , OPTIONSTRATEGIES , CATEGORY
Jonathan Ware
Jonathan Ware
@ReassessHistory
Rhino Barges

One of the dullest, coolest, more bizarre and fascinating pieces of kit used in Normandy.

Which NO ONE REALLY CARES ABOUT.

BUT I DO AND YOU SHOULD TOO.
/1

#WW2 #SWW #History


Planning for Overlord and Neptune had a serious snag, how to get troops from LSTs onto the beach as simply ramming them onto the beaches and dropping the ramp was known to damage the exceptionally vulnerable LSTs and felt to be unsustainable in the mid to long term. /2


LSTs were essential in sustaining Overlord's progress and were a subject of major headaches in the planning phase, and a real subject of friction when it came to launching additional amphibious operations such as Dragoon.

A single LSTs loss represented a capability nick. /3


So, logic dictated, we don't really want these remarkable but rare and highly valuable vessels constantly doing beach landings, we want something to act as a medium between ship to shore, and in came the (mostly) American designed Rhino. /4


I fucking love Rhinos.

Seriously.

Graceful lines of pure industrial pedigree.

Modular.

LOOK AT IT. /5
HISTORY