* Consider hedging bank stocks or writing calls against positions now
There was near a universal view that bank stocks were unattractive in March-April last
From yesterday on @realmoney @WilfredFrost @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick
Jan 14, 2021 | 07:50 AM EST DOUG KASS
The Easy Money Has Been Made in Banks
* The setup into the current reporting period is poor
* With bank stocks elevated, in-line to slightly lower reports, relative to
* Consider hedging bank stocks or writing calls against positions now
There was near a universal view that bank stocks were unattractive in March-April last
When the ($XLF) was about $21, and I was buying, it was over $31.50 in pre-market trading, one analyst on our site said it was patently foolish to expect a rally in the sector. As to leading the market it was next to unimaginable to that observer.
A well-known
Others have just wobbled back and forth without any conviction.
I spent months in my Diary, in the media
The rest is history.
Of late, bank stocks have
* Net interest margins are benefiting from economic optimism. 2s/10s are widening, interest rates are rising and inflation breakevens are hitting multi year highs.
* As well, many now recognize that loan loss
* Meanwhile, the Feds have taken their feet off the banking industry's necks and are now permitting share buybacks.
While it has paid to be anticipatory in the group I am fearful that we are now
I make this statement because I believe the next six months or so represent a fundamental risk that global economic growth may not live up to expectations. Already Europe is
I also make this statement because I believe the broad market is vulnerable for the many reasons mentioned recently in my Diary.
As to the reports coming up over the next week, given the continuing macro economic headwinds, I, importantly, expect most EPS reports
With bank stocks elevated, in-line to slightly lower reports, relative to consensus expectations, could modestly disappoint traders and investors - particularly if my market concerns pan out.
When the stocks traded at their lows nine months ago I predicted that, in
I have
And I am now considering taking an XLF short hedge against my "forever" holdings in banks to insulate me from some turbulence over the next few
As an alternative, I am also considering writing calls in my four bank holdings to protect me from the downside, to take in some premium and to avoid large taxable gains.
Stay tuned... @jimcramer @tomkeene @riskreversal @ScottWapnerCNBC
More from Finance
I'm lucky to attain financial freedom before 30.
I credit Fintwit for my learnings.
Here's 10 key concepts every investor must know:
1. $$ needed to retire
2. Researching a business
3. Reading annual reports
4. Reading earnings calls
5. Criteria of a multi bagger
(Read on...)
6. Holding a multi bagger
7. Economic moats
8. When to buy a stock
9. Earnings vs cashflow
10. Traits of quality companies
Here's my 10 favourite threads on these concepts:
1. How much $$ do you need to retire
Before you start, you must know the end game.
To meet your retirement goals...
How much $$ do you need in your portfolio?
10-K Diver does a good job explaining what's a safe withdrawl rate.
Hint: It's NOT
2. Research a business
Your investment returns are a lagging indicator.
Instead, your research skills are the leading predictor of your results.
Conclusion?
To be a good investor, you must be a great business researcher.
Start with
3. Reading annual reports
This is the bread and butter of a good business analyst.
You cannot just listen to opinions from others.
You must learn to deep dive a business and make your own judgments.
Start with the 10k.
Ming Zhao explains it
I credit Fintwit for my learnings.
Here's 10 key concepts every investor must know:
1. $$ needed to retire
2. Researching a business
3. Reading annual reports
4. Reading earnings calls
5. Criteria of a multi bagger
(Read on...)
6. Holding a multi bagger
7. Economic moats
8. When to buy a stock
9. Earnings vs cashflow
10. Traits of quality companies
Here's my 10 favourite threads on these concepts:
1. How much $$ do you need to retire
Before you start, you must know the end game.
To meet your retirement goals...
How much $$ do you need in your portfolio?
10-K Diver does a good job explaining what's a safe withdrawl rate.
Hint: It's NOT
1/
— 10-K Diver (@10kdiver) July 25, 2020
Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, I'll help you work out how much money you need to retire.
2. Research a business
Your investment returns are a lagging indicator.
Instead, your research skills are the leading predictor of your results.
Conclusion?
To be a good investor, you must be a great business researcher.
Start with
1/ Thoughts on Research Process
— Mostly Borrowed Ideas (@borrowed_ideas) September 27, 2021
I was invited to present my research process at a college in the US. I am sharing all ten slides here. pic.twitter.com/z0tjZcogfH
3. Reading annual reports
This is the bread and butter of a good business analyst.
You cannot just listen to opinions from others.
You must learn to deep dive a business and make your own judgments.
Start with the 10k.
Ming Zhao explains it
\U0001f9d0How to Read 10Ks Like a Hedge Fund\U0001f9d0
— Ming Zhao (@FabiusMercurius) May 7, 2021
\u201cFundamentals don\u2019t matter anymore!\u201d I\u2019ve heard this a lot lately on Fintwit.\U0001f644
But, for those who\u2019ve diversify beyond $GME and $DOGE, here\u2019s a primer on what metrics fundamental buy-side PMs look at and why:
(real examples outlined)
\U0001f447 pic.twitter.com/tLlNRvpnDK
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Recently, the @CNIL issued a decision regarding the GDPR compliance of an unknown French adtech company named "Vectaury". It may seem like small fry, but the decision has potential wide-ranging impacts for Google, the IAB framework, and today's adtech. It's thread time! 👇
It's all in French, but if you're up for it you can read:
• Their blog post (lacks the most interesting details): https://t.co/PHkDcOT1hy
• Their high-level legal decision: https://t.co/hwpiEvjodt
• The full notification: https://t.co/QQB7rfynha
I've read it so you needn't!
Vectaury was collecting geolocation data in order to create profiles (eg. people who often go to this or that type of shop) so as to power ad targeting. They operate through embedded SDKs and ad bidding, making them invisible to users.
The @CNIL notes that profiling based off of geolocation presents particular risks since it reveals people's movements and habits. As risky, the processing requires consent — this will be the heart of their assessment.
Interesting point: they justify the decision in part because of how many people COULD be targeted in this way (rather than how many have — though they note that too). Because it's on a phone, and many have phones, it is considered large-scale processing no matter what.
It's all in French, but if you're up for it you can read:
• Their blog post (lacks the most interesting details): https://t.co/PHkDcOT1hy
• Their high-level legal decision: https://t.co/hwpiEvjodt
• The full notification: https://t.co/QQB7rfynha
I've read it so you needn't!
Vectaury was collecting geolocation data in order to create profiles (eg. people who often go to this or that type of shop) so as to power ad targeting. They operate through embedded SDKs and ad bidding, making them invisible to users.
The @CNIL notes that profiling based off of geolocation presents particular risks since it reveals people's movements and habits. As risky, the processing requires consent — this will be the heart of their assessment.
Interesting point: they justify the decision in part because of how many people COULD be targeted in this way (rather than how many have — though they note that too). Because it's on a phone, and many have phones, it is considered large-scale processing no matter what.
