BC ECONOMY
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

Let's discuss how little you actually understand about economics and energy.

The first thing to understand is that energy is not globally fungible. Electricity decays as it leaves its point of origin; it’s expensive to transport. There is a huge excess (hydro) in many areas.

 In other words, it can also be variable. It's estimated that in Sichuan there is twice as much electricity produced as is needed during the rainy season. Indeed, there is seasonality to how Bitcoin mining works. You can see here: https://t.co/dzPI5LAOln
Bitcoin EXPORTS energy in this scenario. Fun fact, most industrial nations would steer this excess capacity towards refining aluminum by melting bauxite ore, which is very energy intensive.

You wouldn't argue that we are producing *too much* electricity from renewables, right?
"But what about the carbon footprint! ITS HUGE!"

Many previous estimates have quite faulty methods and don't take into account the actual energy sources. Is it fair to put a GHG equivalent on hydro or solar power? That would seem a bit disingenuous, no?
Well that's exactly what some have done.

https://t.co/el1Zzy6g31

https://t.co/JSof31ObNs
Only a wholly uncritical mind would take dubious research like this and double down on a bad take. China's policy has largely veered towards keeping miners out of the 'steady' power grid that runs on coal simply because other productive industries are given preference by the CCP.
Let's consider the other sources of electricity which miners use now and may depend on at greater scale in the future:

Recently the petro industry has experimented with burning CH4 "flare-offs" to power Bitcoin miners, cutting methane emissions and reducing warming potential.
Solar is also free energy for most who are brave enough to commit to the cooling costs and infrastructural requirements. It's been done before and it will absolutely scale as panels become even cheaper.

https://t.co/WaleCRMh51
In fact, even if individuals and companies mining bitcoin do not shift to a renewable-based mining scheme, locales may just force them to do it. In Missoula, MT, miners must "either purchase or build renewable sources of energy that completely offset the electricity they consume"
Furthermore it is estimated that globally between 40-70% of all cryptocurrency mining powered by renewables. Of course this is up for debate and depends on who you ask.

It's fine to be critical of Bitcoin and the negative externalities, but it's worth being well informed.

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Michael Pettis
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Good article. But while growing international criticism and rising trade tensions may have had some impact, as the article suggests, I don’t think they really explain the great reversal in BRI lending of the past few years.

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As I have been writing since 2011, China’s development lending was always likely to follow the pattern of other countries when they first “went out” (e.g. the US in the 1920s, USSR in the 1950s, Japan in the late 1970s). Because of little historical...

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knowledge and no previous experience, an early rapid rise in development lending would be driven mainly by underestimating risk and an overestimation of their own business "success" in making loans, and would of course be further supported by geopolitical ambitions.

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This combination would inevitably lead to bad lending decisions, followed just as inevitably by debt restructuring, loan losses, and a contraction in development lending. In the 1920s, for example, the US set off quite explicitly and aggressively to displace England in...

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Latin America, and American businesses and banks assumed they “understood” Latin America much better than the English did, in spite of the vast English experience there, but their early displacement of British lending only resulted in the huge loan losses of the 1930s.
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Eric Basmajian
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Diminishing Marginal Returns

The productivity of our debt is collapsing and that is creating a major problem.

The problem is here now, and not in the future.

Here is why:

1)


Charted below is the increase in total debt and the increase in nominal GDP in the 8 quarters before each of the last six recessions.

In other words, how much did debt increase, and how much did GDP increase in the final two years of each economic expansion?

2)


As the chart shows, it is taking a larger amount of debt to increase GDP.

3)


Graphed another way, leading up to the 1980 recession it took about 1.94 dollars of debt to boost GDP by 1 dollar.

Leading up to the COVID recession saw debt increase nearly 6 dollars for each 1 dollar of GDP growth.

4)


Flipping the ratio shows the decline in the utility of debt.

We are only generating about 15-20 cents of growth for each dollar of debt.

This becomes a larger problem when we think about "growth rates" instead of nominal dollars.

5)
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Gregory Scott \u2728
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@Zen_Options
THREAD - (Short term Options)

Many of the messages I get regarding options are referencing outside the money (OTM) calls w/ expirations a week or two out (or less)

It's no wonder these traders are often very concerned (even frantic) about the outcome of their trades.

Unless you are an expert technician, and/or have serious market knowledge and intuitive skills, I recommend buying *at least* a month or two of time, and not holding through an earnings report unless you've trimmed your position at a significant profit, or are playing LEAPS.

(LEAPS = Long-term Equity Anticipation Securities
a.k.a. Long term options typically w/ an expiration of longer than a year)

While playing OTM weekly options has the potential for huge returns, & will undoubtedly get your adrenaline pumping, it's also an easy way to lose your💰

*IF* you insist on playing OTM weeklies, be very cognizant of your position sizing.

Each trade should be a *very* small percentage of your account, and you should assume that every trade you make is going to zero.

However, you don't need to play short-term options to make *serious* money over time...

You can still make massive returns on options that have expirations that are 2+ months, even 2+ years out without taking on so much immediate risk.
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Ricardo Reis
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** MMT is the new supply-side economics
Forty years ago, some economists started from an uncontroversial (but important) result: a lower tax rate raises the tax base, so revenues won't fall as much. But then they ran with it, predicting tax rate cuts could raise revenues.

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The 80s supply-siders went to the limit and came up with a motto: lower taxes will lower deficits as a norm, not an exception. Many economists shouted this was backwards. It was an implausible limit case. Textbooks called them "charlatans and cranks" or "silly".
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In 80s debates, supply-siders would often fall back to "you don't understand me", repeating "Laffer curve!" endlessly, or stating vacuous accounting identities about how the government collect taxes. Their extreme prediction was repeatedly proven wrong by theory and data.
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But they had popular hero figures (Laffer, Moore), and an eager political audience that would use any argument to cut taxes. Eventually, they inspired new good research, and helped in swinging the pendulum of policy debates to include some valid supply considerations.
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Yet, supply-side economic ideas also contributed to a massive rise in US public debt in the last 40 years. Right-wing governments became as prone to have large public deficits as left-wing governments, in the pursuit of cuts in taxes.
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The last Hindu king of Pakistan.

The name Amarkot is known to all in our subcontinent as the birthplace of Emperor Akbar. When Humayun was fleeing from Sher Shah, Rana Prasad of Amarkot sheltered him and this is where Emperor Akbar was born.

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They have always maintained friendly relations with the rulers. The Mughal court and the Rana of Amarkot had special respect because Emperor Akbar was born in the shelter of Amarkot Raj. They did not even have to attend court regularly.

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Dara Shikohar provided Rana supplies to Amarkot during his expedition to Kandahar.
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