BC ECONOMY
Saved by @Alex1Powell

Payrolls in November rose a mere +245k. That's the sort of number you might see in a "normal" month, and definitely not what you're hoping for in the snapback from a covid-induced shutdown.

THE RECOVERY IS STALLING.

 Remember, the economy lost 22 million jobs, then gained roughly half of them back.

We still have 10 million fewer jobs than we did in February. Clawing the rest back at +245k per month will take basically forever. If this is the second half of the recovery, it's going to be grim
The dramatic ups and downs of recent months might hide the real story here: The economy is in a deep hole -- as deep as in the darkest days following the financial crisis -- and the recovery is faltering. Barely there. Making no progress. Stalled. Stopped.
The proximate causes of our slowing economy are obvious:
The virus is back, which hobbles the service sector, and stimulus has basically petered out, leaving the economy with little help. It doesn't have to be this way.
The household survey suggests that employment actually declined (by -74k) last month. So the fall in unemployment from 6.9% to 6.7% largely reflect the fact that an additional 400k people dropped out of the labor force.
And if you think an unemployment rate of 6.7% doesn't sound too bad, realize that this largely reflects millions of people dropping out of the labor force -- millions more than in a typical downturn -- because it's barely safe to leave their houses.
We're already seeing the recessionary impulse from state and local governments cutting back.
- State governments cut -243k jobs in March-May, and now an additional 134k since September.
- Local governments cut -1255k jobs March-May, and -187k since Sept.

And more cuts are ahead.
Over half of this month's job growth is in the stay-at-home-because-of-the-virus sector.
You can't interpret economic numbers separately from the broader public health context. The pandemic changes what one might mean by "good jobs" and "bad jobs."
https://t.co/4RHutW5Q4E
The recovery was always going to be a play in two acts.

The first act was firms re-opening and recalling furloughed workers.

The second act is harder: Millions lost their jobs permanently & there aren't many new opportunities opening up for them.

The second act is a grim slog.
By @jasonfurman's calculation, the "realistic" unemployment rate -- which adjusts for the unusual decline in participation -- is 8.5%, and is *rising*.
https://t.co/tLb6uYhe9f
We're at risk of creating more lasting problems: The share of the unemployed who have been jobless >6 months has now risen from 19% in February to 37% in November, and it's rising sharply.

As people lose contact with the labor market, they lose connections, skills, and hope.
https://t.co/QEE3EFcGdT
A wonky nugget: Response rates to the labor market surveys are most of the way back to pre-covid levels, suggesting that perhaps the data are becoming more reliable.

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Rugilandavyi Barabona \U0001f1f9\U0001f1ff \U0001f1e7\U0001f1ee
Rugilandavyi Barabona ...
@rugilandavyi
‼️𝗦𝗖𝗔𝗠/𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗨𝗗/𝗖𝗢𝗡
So there is a self proclaimed successful business woman that started her business ventures at 15 y/o with $5 (=8000Tsh🤡) as per 2013 exchnange rate, now in 2020 she is 22 y/o and allegedly revenues millions of dollars from her many businesses


She claims to have had 25 businesses, yes 25 businesses but now only has 7 that are running successfully 24/7 earning her millions of dollars in revenue.

I have no doubt that she has been hustling with a lot but that does not legitimise any of those hustles as most were shady.

Call me a hater/jealous/poor/broke or whatever but I know a scammy business when I see one and my concern is not a personal matter against her but rather people who fall for the rags to riches story and therefore pay her for business mentoring/wealth management

The following are just few among many red flags about this person's businesses, I welcome any others to contribute in this thread however they want but just keep it respectful.

🚩 Stealing photos from the Internet and editing her name on them for her Ad campaigns, branding them as if they were her actual products and projects while they're not. You source most of her posts just by a Google image search . And they have nothing to do with her.
ECONOMY
TraderLion
TraderLion
@TraderLion_
Why do we track institutional footprints? 🐘 (Thread)

Large institutions like mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, insurance companies, trusts, etc. amount for over 75% of all volume. These institutions move the market, not you and I.

It makes sense that if these guys are moving the markets, we would ideally want to buy the same stocks they are buying, but before they buy them? Right?

So, let’s get a clear understanding of how and why this is so important and what this might look like behind the scenes.

For starters, let’s discuss what we mean by a large institution. In this case, we are referring to the many funds, pensions, trusts, etc. that are responsible for managing tens, if not hundreds of billions of dollars.

Hence, they easily attract and can afford to retain the planet’s top talent, not to mention, their research budgets are enormous.

They have access to information and resources that the retail crowd simply does not, and if they did, it would likely be extremely unaffordable.
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Richard Murphy
Richard Murphy
@RichardJMurphy
As some will have noted, there were a lot of reports yesterday on the fact that £50 billion of banks notes are missing in the UK economy. This got me thinking. And as a result I have to suggest that finding that £50 billion of cash would not be hard. Here’s how to do it.

As the Public Accounts Committee of the House of Commons has noted, around £50 billion of banknotes in issue have no explained use. In other words, they do not appear to be used for regular cash transactions. What their alternative use might be is not known.

Some could be in the possession of tourists, who have not bothered to exchange them on leaving the country. But the amounts involved would be small.

A bigger sum might be cash savings under the proverbial mattress. This is entirely plausible. It is possible that some of this will be related to benefit fraud: the amount of savings a person has can have a significant impact on their ability to claim a number of benefits.

There is no doubt that a significant part of this money Is used within the shadow economy. That can cover activity where tax is evaded, of course. But it also includes drug dealing and many forms of human trafficking and abuse.
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Darren \U0001f95a
Darren 🥚
@ReformedTrader
1/ Trend Factor: Any Economic Gains from Using Information over Investment Horizons? (Han, Zhou, Zhu)

"A trend factor using multiple time lengths outperforms ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal, which are based on the three price trends separately."

https://t.co/udkvsdw2Lz


2/ This resembles combining multiple measures of ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal (forecasts determined by walking forward rather than using signs from the full sample).

Unlike normal moving average signals, these are *cross-sectional.* More below:
https://t.co/wkIFLg9jtK


3/ Unsurprisingly, the Trend factor formed by this approach outperforms benchmarks in terms of both Sharpe ratio and tail metrics. It's combining momentum with two factors that are negatively correlated to it AND using multiple specifications.

More here:
https://t.co/x8Tloz3iyL


4/ "Average return and volatility of the trend factor are both higher in recession periods. However, the Sharpe ratio is virtually the same.

"Interestingly, all of the factors still have positive average returns.

"Momentum experiences the greatest increase in volatility."


5/ "In terms of maximum drawdown and the Calmar ratio, the trend factor performs the best.

"The trend factor is correlated with the short-term reversal factor (35%), long-term reversal factor (14%), and the market (20%) but is virtually uncorrelated with the momentum factor."
ECONOMY
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
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It is a little frustrating to see the response many analysts had to the GDP growth data Chinese released today. These numbers aren’t especially good, and they certainly shouldn’t have been surprising. Back in April and May, when most

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were projecting negative or barely positive GDP growth for China in 2020 (the OECD, for example, expected China’s GDP to contract by 3.7%), I insisted that GDP growth for 2020 would be positive, and probably between 2% and 3%.

Today, it was reported as 2.3%. How did...

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I know? Because I knew that while most of the healthy sources of Chinese growth would contract (except for exports, which would expand given Beijing’s intense supply-side response to the impact of Covid-19), Beijing was going to respond to a significant...

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worsening of the healthy parts of its economy by unleashing enough of the unhealthy, non-productive growth it has long tried to constrain – basically real estate and infrastructure investment – in order to achieve as much economic activity as it...

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needed for domestic political ends.

And that’s exactly what happened. While GDP grew by 6.5% in the fourth quarter, even with substantial tailwinds its retail sales measure – a proxy for consumption – was only up 4.6%, and it was down 3.9% overall in 2020.
ECONOMY

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Here is my Thread on 'Ketu (South Node) Through Nakshatras' The 27 Constellations 🙏❣.

Do check your “Past life Mastery” which KETU Represents🤞🏻.


1. Ketu in Ashwini Nakshatra:

Here native is Great at Financial Planning, Face reading, understanding other’s mind and intention, Driving Fast they don’t like but they are wayyy smooth over driving Fast. This is also great position which can make native Great Surgeon,

Neurologist, Psychologist.
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In Past life they have handles many things which is now helping them to make things easier in this life. They are great Leaders too.

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WHEN GH0RI TOOK TO HIS HEELS WHILST FIGHTING A HINDU QUEEN

THE BATTLE OF KASAHRADA (Kayadara)
1178 AD

Strategy! Bravado! Glory!

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The narrative set by left historians about one of their favorite poster boys "Gh0ri" is that he went unchallenged upon entering the Indian subcontinent with one king falling after another.(1)

They conveniently deleted this event. Why? An agenda aimed at making us feel weak and inferior against the invaders in an attempt to glorify them. Simple strategy: To destroy a civilization tamper their history.(2)

Gh0ri defeated Prithviraj Chauhan at the 2nd Battle of Tarain in 1192 and laid the foundation of Delhi Sultanate. What is not well known is the fact that 14 years before he won this battle, he was defeated by the queen of Gujarat "Naiki Devi"!(3)

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Remember: Just because an idea is old doesn't mean it's good.

Knowing whether old ideas are more likely to be good requires understanding whether conditions have changed in important ways.

Horse archery was an amazing method of warfare for over a thousand years...then people invented guns, and suddenly this great idea that had stood the test of time became obsolete.

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"Learning the lessons of history" usually just means assuming ergodicity and stationarity in an informal time-series model...

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The Haas / Force India argument is fascinating, and the decision of the stewards may still have consequences. The first key finding is that the stewards ruled Racing Point Force India to be a valid constructor. That means that it builds its own cars.

Haas had argued that the cars had been designed by Force India, but as Haas knows only too well, "outsourcing" is legal. The stewards decided that "there is no regulatory support for the argument that Outsourcing of Listed Parts cannot come from a former or excluded team."

In determining this, the stewards also came to the following conclusion: "In relation to the submission by the Racing Point Force India F1 Team that it is not a new team, the Stewards decide that the Racing Point Force India F1 Team is indeed a new team."

This will have a big knock on effect for Haas in its continued arguments over the rights of RPFI as relates to its eligibility and rights under the complex payments structure. Haas has argued all along that RPFI should be treated as a new team and tread the same path that it did.

TLDR? Haas lost the fight but may have won the war. In having its argument that Racing Point hadn't designed their own car thrown out, they gained clarification that RPFI was a new team.
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श्रीमाली हितेश अवस्थी...
@HiteshAwasthi89
Sri Maha Bhairavar Rudhra alayam, Chengalpet, Tamilnadu

This temple is being constructed merely on the instructions from Bhairava by his devotee Shri Bhairava Siddhantham Swamy. The Temple is fully enshrinedin a transparent glass enclosure..1/n


with Rudrakshas on both the sides of the entrance This temple has a circular Sanctum Sanctorum which has twelve stepseach representing a sign of zodiac and after that twelve steps we find the supreme deity of this temple Sri Kshetra Paata Bhairava. 2/n


Beneath the Bhairava, in the lower level are installed the Ashta Bhairavas, SapthaRishis in the form of stones, and Saptha Kannis in the form of brass lamps. Thereare a number of little blue and white lights in the ceiling that is shaped like a dome.. 3/n


which give an ethereal atmosphere when switched on. The steps representthe twelve signs of the zodiac and when one steps over them to reach thesanctum sanctorum all the doshas pertaining to the horoscope are cleared onceand for all..4/n


The Sthala Vriksham ”Peepal Tree” which is grown on a pedestal, a trident which is considered as Bhairavi, Pancha Mukha Anjaneya, Prathyankara Devi, Subramanya, Rudra Vinayaga, Vaishnavi Devi, Naga Rudra, Eswara, Vana Durga etc. 5/5

#IncredibleBharat
#DekhoApnaDesh
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