This is mostly a thread on reminders to myself relating mostly to the former.
Crypto trading - some personal takeaways from 2020
This is mostly a thread on reminders to myself relating mostly to the former.
Confirmation bias (ignoring contrary signals), anchoring bias (married to entry, trading PnL), sizing too big on low r/r trades, hesitating to buy cheap assets because "it's fallen/rallied too much".
/1
Constantly question whether you have done all you could to maximize returns in the past month/quarter. Review all tools at your disposal (vol strats, momentum strats, fundamentals) but don't Dunning-Kruger yourself. There are no jack of all trades.
/2
Don't regret missing out on a few trades/ investments. Better to win big on 1 high conviction idea then win big on 100 small ones. Be ok with missing out but be ruthless with not learning from it.
/3
Optimize for 4-5 GREAT decisions a year over 50 mediocre decisions. If you're on tilt or in a rut, doubling down will compound your losses. Take time off, re-assess your strategy, then return. The market will always be here.
/4
Re-read Fooled by Randomness. One good investment is a lucky bet. One good quarter doesn't make you a fund manager. Find out how to be consistent and constantly evolve this.
/5
Everyone talks their books. Recognize who is only out to "pick your brain" with no intention to reciprocate. Watch out for groupthink, but play iterative games with long term people. Always seek dissent, but ignore uninformed people with loud voices.
/6
Trading is exchanging time for money. Investing creates wealth when you sleep. Former is what you know. Latter is what you know and who you know. These skills seem ostensibly similar but require different inputs to nurture.
/7
Crypto is small; place your reputation above all else. Never let short term profits, regardless of how enticing, come before decisions that optimize for longer term value creation.
/8
@Arthur_0x @AviFelman @HassanBassiri @ConvexMonster @CL207 @Rewkang @MapleLeafCap @lightcrypto @Daryllautk @Darrenlautf
More from Crypto
0/ The Great Crypto Reversal
Key difference between the '17 and roaring 20s in crypto is that back then everyone was aping a16z and Naval.
Today everyone apes 3AC wanting to be the next Degen.
'17 was an idealistic *saving the world* kind of thing
20s is *me against the world*
1/ The financialization of crypto means more volatility but pretty long ascend to the top.
Multi-year bull and an ATH surprising even to the biggest bulls as the infinite Cantillon "wealth" is pumped into crypto
Crypto becomes the ultimate Cantillon insider circle-jerk.
2/ This will be one the most iconic ideological reversals in history, comparable to Google who was firmly against advertising but turned into the most powerful ad company ever.
3/ This scenario reminds me of the 90s privatization period in the post-socialist countries.
The regime transition allowed the communist party elite to benefit from the wild west form of "capitalism" that ensued, transferring (and multiplying) their wealth into the new regime.
4/ We are far from Satoshi's original vision . But words and intentions of *prophets* were used to manipulate and corrupt all throughout human history and this time it is no
Key difference between the '17 and roaring 20s in crypto is that back then everyone was aping a16z and Naval.
Today everyone apes 3AC wanting to be the next Degen.
'17 was an idealistic *saving the world* kind of thing
20s is *me against the world*
1/ The financialization of crypto means more volatility but pretty long ascend to the top.
Multi-year bull and an ATH surprising even to the biggest bulls as the infinite Cantillon "wealth" is pumped into crypto
Crypto becomes the ultimate Cantillon insider circle-jerk.
2/ This will be one the most iconic ideological reversals in history, comparable to Google who was firmly against advertising but turned into the most powerful ad company ever.
3/ This scenario reminds me of the 90s privatization period in the post-socialist countries.
The regime transition allowed the communist party elite to benefit from the wild west form of "capitalism" that ensued, transferring (and multiplying) their wealth into the new regime.
4/ We are far from Satoshi's original vision . But words and intentions of *prophets* were used to manipulate and corrupt all throughout human history and this time it is no
At "forever" Cantillon insiders are infinitely wealthy. Everybody else lives in pods & eats what the livestock eats, or joins the harem or household staff of an infinitaire.
— Nick Szabo (@NickSzabo4) January 21, 2020