BC CRYPTO
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

1/  We've reached a critical inflection point in bitcoin's adoption curve.

A moment wholly unique in the history of markets.

Are you ready for what comes next? 👇

#Bitcoin

 2/ A perfect storm of demand dynamics is driving #Bitcoin price.

I think something shifted in the market -- and active investors & traders would do well to adjust their mindset.
3/ After years asleep at the wheel, institutional leaders are now jarred awake, en masse.

If they want this asset: they'll have to hustle, compete with the masses and FOMO in above ATH's.

Against a backdrop of scarcity unlike anything they've ever seen.
4/ They will buy *all* dips.

Their bots will not stop buying.

There isn't enough supply for all of them, and they know it.
5/ And the whales who accumulated much lower?

How much appetite will strong hands have to market sell, just to run stops?

In the opening hours of the greatest bull market of their lives.

In a liquidity crisis.
6/ This is why the halvening was never priced in.

This is why I think #Bitcoin goes to $35k-$40k, before a shakeout much worse than anything we've seen so far.

I’m not saying we teleport to $40k instantly.

Just small gains, pretty much every day, for many weeks.
7/ I could be wrong about this -- that's certainly happened before.

But this scenario would not be unprecedented:

This same thing happened in 2017, when #BTC broke previous ATHs after multiple tries.
8/  If you feel like you don't have enough exposure:

*Don't* throw risk mgmt out the window -- because we can't know for sure if I'm right.

Buy gradually -- on small pullbacks, at the weekly TWAP, BTC's time-weighted average price.

https://t.co/DSutfD4HXP
9/  Free tradingview indicator for checking TWAP:

https://t.co/YznxJI4E42
10/  How will you know when we're approaching the local top?

I will look to two metrics:

(and neither one is funding -- funding will be useless if this scenario plays out).
11/ The first is Short Term Holder MVRV, from @glassnode.

I consider this the alpha metric on-chain for finding local #BTC tops.

I want to see STH-MVRV print above a 1.5, then make lowers lows.
12/ The second is Whale Exchange Ratio.

On Gemini exchange: this metric was never wrong in 2020.

Gemini whales are #Bitcoin 's secret bellweather.

(Data from @cryptoquant_com)
13/ I'll be watching closely to see how all this plays out.

And regardless of the result - I feel grateful.

After enduring the long crypto winter, we're finally here at the beginning of something special. 👊

More from Crypto

Jos\xe9 Maria Macedo
José Maria Macedo
@ZeMariaMacedo
While my time investing in crypto and previously playing poker has gotten me used to experiencing large daily personal net worth volatility, it's never a pleasant experience

Short thread (by my standards...) with some ramblings that help me get through it 👇

1/10 Imo, some DeFi projects represent 10-1000x upside opportunities

Obviously, like all of crypto, it is extremely risky and can go to 0. That said, given the magnitude of potential outcomes, it just doesn't have to succeed that often to make it a massively +EV bet

2/10 As with all early stage tech, realising these outcomes will require 4-8 year holds

Unlike early stage tech, crypto investors will have liquidity, i.e. the possibility, and thus the temptation, to sell

This is both a blessing and a curse

3/10 A look at any of the best performing public stocks will show you that you cannot have 10-1000x upside potential without volatiliy and occasional large drawdowns

Crypto, as early stage tech, is much riskier than established public companies and thus even higher vol too

4/10 Obviously, one should take advantage of this liquidity as it allows for rebalancing. Most importantly, it also makes outcomes less binary and thus less volatile than traditional VC

However, one should not let the liquidity take advantage of us
CRYPTO
Dr. Liyana Mohtar
Dr. Liyana Mohtar
@LiyanaMohtar
Here's my 2021 Crypto Strategy:

Note: Not a financial advice. It is just my opinion after doing my own research (#DYOR). I'm a complete newbie btw.

1. Dollar-Cost-Averaging (DCA) for these 6 coins (HODL)
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Polka Dot (DOT)
- Cardano (ADA)
- Binance (BNB)
- Litecoin (LTC)

I choose these 6 bcs they are all TOP 10 Coins, they have the biggest market cap which means less risky than other coins.


DCA means I'm going to topup for all of these coins everytime ada duit lebih/dapat gaji.

But I will only buy when price dip / during correction

How to know when price dipped?

I use TradingView (free version) - guna RMI and Stoch indicator, if it touches the lower line it means it have been oversold - under 4h timeframe (because I'm a long term investor). This is to avoid buying at the top.

For example:

This is Bitcoin on TradingView. Under 4h Timeframe, indicator RMI & Stoch. I'll buy when RMI and Stoch touches the lower line. Boleh nampak lepas buy at dip, the price terus naik.
CRYPTO
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Prateek Singh
Prateek Singh
@PrateekLearnapp
We should be proud about @0xPolygon. But don't invest if you don't understand what they do just like any other asset class.
CRYPTO
\U0001f4c6 Week in Clubhouse \U0001f44b
📆 Week in Clubhouse 👋...
@weekinclubhouse
🚨 @naval @balajis and @shl live on Clubhouse right now🚨

.@naval: I can't imagine working on anything besides crypto. Crypto was the biggest changemaker and biggest wealth maker of 2020.

.@balajis: Crypto is a civilization technology

.@naval: Property rights is one of the hardest problems. That's why we need nation state. Nation states do property rights. #BTC is solving this. #BTC is solving the hardest problem. If we can solve the BTC problem, we can solve everything else (decentralized media, file storage)

.@naval: I think the next big thing we're going to see is decentralize social networks. All the centralized social networks just created the 2008-2009 moment, it's going to change everything.
CRYPTO
anshul gupta
anshul gupta
@anshgupta64
Scathing comments on Crypto from Mr Rabi Shankar - Deputy Governor, RBI.

1) On crypto being treated as a currency:
"Currency always has an issuer, usually a trusted entity like the sovereign. Even when gold is used as a currency, the gold coins had to be issued by a sovereign.

Secondly, historically, a currency has always been either a commodity with intrinsic value or a debt instrument. Cryptocurrencies do not conform
to this understanding as they do not have an issuer, they are not an instrument of debt/commodities nor do have any intrinsic value.

Currency needs trust, not everything that can be trusted is a currency. So even if technology (as
in a blockchain) provides the trust for cryptocurrencies, they can at best perform the role of a currency within the private and closed environment of that cryptocurrency.

They do not, and should not, automatically become a currency for the larger society "

2) On crypto being treated as a financial asset : "This is also problematic because all financial assets have underlying cash flows and need to be some person’s liability.
CRYPTO

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ULTIMATE GUIDE TO 21 and 200 Moving Average
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RETWEET AND SHARE 🔄
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#stocks #StockMarket
1/n

Moving averages
EMA and SMA
1. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is similar to Simple Moving Average (SMA), measuring trend direction over a period of time.
2. However, whereas SMA simply calculates an average of price data, EMA applies more weight to data that is more current
2/


21 EMA : SHORT TERM TREND
1. Calculates the Average Price of past 21 days
2. A stock above 21 ema is in strong momentum , which will give pullbacks to 21 ema again and again.
3. Stock above 21 ema should never be shorted so as to stay with the trend
3/n

3. A stock which moves 10-15% above 21 ema will be too extended and hence will generally pullback
Stocks take dynamic support on 21 ema
4. You can Short only if its too extended like 15 to 20% from 21 ema ( Not advised )
#ADANIPOWER:
#pnbhousing
4/n


1. Whenever 21 ema is sloping upwards its called uptrend
2. Whenever 21 ema is sloping downwards its called dowtrend
3. Whenever 21 ema is sideways its called consolidation
⏫Buy in uptrend
⏬Sell in downtrend
Examples:
5/n
MOVINGAVERAGES , MOVING AVERAGE 20021 , ALL
Caleb Porzio
Caleb Porzio
@calebporzio
🎉🎉 PHP 7.3 is here!

Here are the things I'm excited about.

🚂 Trailing commas in function/method calls!

This will certainly be a required styling choice for me. Same delightful benefits of trailing comma in multi-line PHP arrays, and JavaScript objects.


🧵 Less disgusting heredoc syntax!

Inlining heredoc strings in any way right now is grrrosssss. Now we get sensible capabilities. Everything that was wrong with it is now fixed!

(Ignore the bad syntax highlighting)


☠️ Finally, not-so-silent json_decode error detection!

This really sucked before, now it just sucks a bit less (who wants to pass a 4th param and pass 2 default params first? (helper function anybody?)


📜 Not horrible functions for getting the first and last item (or key) from an array!

Before you either strung a bunch of functions together or messed with internal array pointers. This is a much-needed improvement.
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Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
Remember: Just because an idea is old doesn't mean it's good.

Knowing whether old ideas are more likely to be good requires understanding whether conditions have changed in important ways.

Horse archery was an amazing method of warfare for over a thousand years...then people invented guns, and suddenly this great idea that had stood the test of time became obsolete.

Then again, when underlying conditions don't change much, tried-and-true approaches are probably better.

"Learning the lessons of history" usually just means assuming ergodicity and stationarity in an informal time-series model...

(end)
SOCIETY
foone
foone
@Foone
It is 2018 and this error message is a mistake from 1974.
This limitation, which is still found in the very latest Windows 10, dates back to BEFORE STAR WARS. This bug is as old as Watergate.


When this was developed, nothing had UPC codes yet because they'd just been invented.
Back when this mistake was made, There was only one Phone Company, because they hadn't been broken up yet. Ted Bundy was still on the loose. Babe Ruth's home run record was about to fall.

When this bug was developed, Wheel of Fortune hadn't yet aired. No one had seen Rocky Horror. Steven Spielberg was still a little-known directory of TV films and one box-office disappointment. SNL hadn't aired yet. The Edmund Fitzgerald was still hauling iron ore.

WHEN THIS STUPID MISFEATURE WAS INVENTED, THE GODFATHER PART II HAD JUST OPENED IN THEATERS.

So, why does this happen? So Unix (which was only 5 years old at this point) had the good idea of "everything is a file" which mean you could do things like write to sockets, pipes, the console, etc with the same commands and instructions.
TECH
Richard James
Richard James
@RJSHutton
I think a plausible explanation is that whatever Corbyn says or does, his critics will denounce - no matter how much hypocrisy it necessitates.


Corbyn opposes the exploitation of foreign sweatshop-workers - Labour MPs complain he's like Nigel

He speaks up in defence of migrants - Labour MPs whinge that he's not listening to the public's very real concerns about immigration:

He's wrong to prioritise Labour Party members over the public:

He's wrong to prioritise the public over Labour Party
POLITICS


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