BC CRYPTO
Saved by @AnmolNarula11

I've just read one of the most lucid, wide-ranging, cross-disciplinary critiques of cryptocurrency and blockchain I've yet to encounter. 1/

 It comes from David "DSHR" Rosenthal, a distinguished technologist whose past achievements including helping to develop X11 and the core technologies for Nvidia.

https://t.co/tkAMShno4k 2/
Rosenthal's critique is a transcript of a lecture he gave to Stanford's EE380 class, adapted from a December 2021 talk for an investor conference. 3/
It is a bang-up-to-date synthesis of many of the critical writings on the subject, glued together with Rosenthal's own deep technical expertise. He calls it "Can We Mitigate Cryptocurrencies' Externalities?"

The presence of "externalities" in Rosenthal's title is key. 4/
Rosenthal identifies blockchainism's core ideology as emerging from "the libertarian culture of Silicon Valley and the cypherpunks," and states that "libertarianism's attraction is based on ignoring externalities."

This is an important critique of libertarianism. 5/
The idea that "liberty" is the freedom to do as you like, provided it doesn't harm others is simple enough on its face, but the reality is very few of our actions are free from the potential to harm others. 6/
The freedom to drive, or operate a firearm, or to determine your own vaccination preferences all have impacts on others. 7/
We can (and should) argue about what consideration you owe to your neighbors and what tolerance they owe to you, but all to often, that argument is settled by ignoring it. 8/
Think of the people who talk about masking as a "personal choice." Human beings have an undeniably entwined epidemiological destiny. There are few epidemiological choices that are purely personal - they redound to the people around you. 9/
The existence of a shared destiny and the necessity of a society to manage it runs smack into the idea that messy personal conflicts are best resolved by carving out individual zones of autonomy. 10/
All too often, the libertarian definition of "liberty" is cover for "I don't want to pay taxes to support a society." This is a pretty unpopular position, so libertarians form alliances with naked authoritarians, like the Christian right:

https://t.co/kbmvG5MRbq 11/
That's how you end up with archlibertarians arguing that the world would be "freer" if women weren't allowed to vote:

https://t.co/bIwXOkJfZH

That democracy itself is incompatible with liberty, since it lets workers vote to limi their bosses:

https://t.co/oL2cBCYJMB 12/
The maintenance of libertarian ideology may not require that you ignore externalities, but it sure helps. 13/
When advocates for "liberty" champion the likes of Augusto Pinochet, who tortured and slaughtered his political enemies by the thousands, they are discounting the lethal externalities of Pinochet's economic "freedoms" to zero. 14/
Rosenthal's critique of contemporary blockchainism starts with this idea of discounted externalities - the foundational contradiction that one's "liberty" exists in a state of pristine isolation, and doesn't harm anyone else. 15/
To get to this, he looks at the history of blockchains. He divides blockchain technology into an older, "permissioned" blockchain technology, invented in 1990, and "permissionless" blockchains, which were invented around 2008 with the first Bitcoin white-paper. 16/
A permissioned blockchain require on a central authority that dictates who can write to the chain. Within that stricture, it produces a highly computationally efficient public ledger that can identify malfunctioning or corrupt nodes in the network and route around them. 17/
Permissionless blockchains, like the Bitcoin blockchain, are born decentralized. No one authority gets to decide who can participate in the ledger's creation - at first. This decentralization comes at a high price, though. 18/
Blockchains are vulnerable to "Sybil attacks" where one attacker impersonates a horde of unconnected actors and takes over the system. 19/
To defend against this, permissionless blockchains make Sybil attacks expensive, so that the most you can steal in a Sybil attack is less than it would cost to pull it off. 20/
The inescapable corollary of this is that using the network has to be expensive - the system has to have a giant electricity bill and hence a massive carbon footprint.

This expense, in turn, compensates miners for the money they pour into defeating Sybil attacks. 21/
These miners get paid in cryptocurrency, and for cryptocurrency to have value, it has to have someone who's willing to buy cryptos with "fiat" - dollars or other easily spent money. 22/
The only reason for someone to trade fiat for those cryptos (apart from making ransomware payments) is as an "investment" - that is, because you think the cryptocurrency's price will rise. Thus these blockchains *require* speculation to function. 23/
All of this means that the majority of blockchain activity is just about maintaining the blockchain - not about buying or selling things. There are only about 27,000 "economically meaningful" Bitcoin transactions in a day - and 75% of those are inter-exchange transactions. 24/
All told, only 2.5% of Bitcoin transactions represent someone buying something from someone (fewer than five per minute, globally).

This profound wastefulness is a feature, not a bug. 25/
It's the expense that keeps Sybil attacks at bay, without centralizing authority over the blockchain, as would be the case with the otherwise vastly more efficient permissioned blockchains that have been around for 30 years. 26/
But here's where Rosenthal unveils the other half of his critique: the drive to maximize the efficiency of mining drives miners to consolidate, in order to attain economies of scale. The more valuable a blockchain is, the more centralized it becomes. 27/
Today, 10% of miners control 90% of the mining. The top 0.1% of miners control 50% of mining. Five mining pools control the majority of Bitcoin mining. Last November, only *two* mining pools controlled the majority of Ethereum mining. 28/
This is the worst of all worlds: a highly volatile blockchain that is incredibly wasteful *and* centralized, with control in the hands of largely anonymous parties who are accountable to no one, who can cheat with impunity.

https://t.co/fO5fciIW3u 29/
So far, the focus of Rosenthal's externality critique has been energy consumption and climate harms. But here he comes to his second externality: e-waste. 30/
To maintain their position in the highly concentrated mining sectors, miners have to run their equipment hard and discard it quickly as it burns out. 31/
The average service life of an ASIC used in blockchain mining is a mere 16 months - whereupon it turned into ewaste, retiring its embodied materials and energy. Other blockchain verification systems, like proof of space-and-time, do the same thing to mass storage devices. 32/
Now, it's true that the finance and tech sectors produce a lot of ewaste on their own. But that's because their equipment wears out despite their best efforts to preserve it. 33/
The foundational premise of cryptocurrency mining is that you are in a race with other miners to discard and replace your equipment as rapidly as possible, to eke out every speed advantage. 34/
The blockchainst response to this is to ignore the ewaste problem and hand-wave the emissions issue by claiming that they're fixing it with offsets. Offsets, meanwhile, are a market for lemons. Most carbon offsets are fairy tales:

https://t.co/xbJRf73SZy 35/
And, as Rosenthal points out, even if your cryptos are being mined with renewables, that is only carbon neutral if you assume "that doing so doesn't compete with more socially valuable uses for renewables, or indeed for power in general." 36/
Blockchainists are aware of the problems with proof of work, and many are calling for a transition to proof of stake, a notionally less climate-intensive way of running a permissionless blockchain. 37/
Rosenthal's critique of proof of stake begins by observing that it drives even more centralization than proof of work. 38/
A proof of stake network allows the people who have the most to tax the transactions of those with less, cementing their dominance and increasing centralization. 39/
So both permissioned and permissionless blockchains end up centralized, but permissionless blockchains - the type beloved of blockchainists - are centralized into unaccountable and often anonymous hands. 40/
So while a permissioned blockchain that is run by a benevolent (or at least accountable) authority can reverse frauds, permissionless blockchains struggle to do this. 41/
This immutability is part of the reason that blockchains and fraud go together like peanut butter and chocolate. Thefts on working permissionless blockchains can't be readily reversed, making them permanent. 42/
Meanwhile, the entities who end up at the top of the centralization pile in these networks can commit thefts by rewriting the "immutable" ledgers. 43/
It's not a purely hypothetical problem. The Steem proof of stake network was compromised by Justin Sun in 2021, who took advantage of the highly centralized staking sector to hijack the Steem blockchain. 44/
The immutability problem is worse in programmable cryptos like Ethereum. The "smart contracts" that operate on these chains are effectively bug bounties whose maximum payout is everything in the wallets connected to them. 45/
The attack surface of programmable money which is connected to social media, Discord servers, standalone wallets, etc, is virtually unbounded. 46/
This is another important point raised by Rosenthal: not only are permissionless blockchains highly concentrated, they're also ineluctably bound up with Web 2.0 technologies. 47/
The fact that Binance conducts two thirds of crypto derivative transactions and half of all spot technologies using browsers and other 2.0 stuff multiplies all the blockchain vulns by all the non-blockchain vulns. 48/
Here Rosenthal cites Adam Levitin's recent, excellent analysis of the legal status of crypto exchange users in bankruptcy proceedings (tldr: if your exchange goes bust, you'll probably get nothing or nearly nothing):

https://t.co/jdtbWjOe3C 49/
Rosenthal's boils this all down to four points:

I. Permissioned blockchains can stop Sybil attacks without cryptocurrency and have no significant externalities; 50/
II. Permissionless blockchains *require* a cryptocurrency to stop Sybil attacks, and this produce major externalities;

III. To be successful, permissionless blockchains require proof-of-work or some other deliberately wasteful system, making externalities inevitable; 51/
IV. Likewise inevitable is that any security system based on wasting resources will create the centralization that permissionless blockchains claim to eliminate. 52/
Rosenthal concludes his talk by affirming that he values decentralization and it is that value that causes him to reject blockchainism. 53/
He reminds us that the billions pouring into the Web3 bubble are bets on attaining scale and dominance - the only reason to pump billions into a blockchain technology is if you think that you can corner a market and make it back. 54/
In other words, Web3 investors see high barriers to entry as a feature, not a bug, and they're committed to centralization. 55/
Image:
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Headquarters (modified)
https://t.co/bq5JJPcDcp

CC BY 2.0:
https://t.co/B930sKCLnf 56/
ETA - If you'd like an unrolled version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on https://t.co/iSBh8s9m7q, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://t.co/5rhyfeEW7L

More from Cory Doctorow RIGHT-CLICKING WORDCEL MENTALITY

Cory Doctorow #BLM
Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow
One of the arguments for permitting monopolies is that they are "efficient." That's the logic under which Universal was allowed to acquire Comcast and NBC - the "vertical integration" would make all three companies better and we'd all reap the benefit.

1/


It turns out that there are DISeconomies of scale, what Brandeis called "the curse of bigness" and really, the Universal-NBC-Comcast octopus is a poster child for that

Comcast has just informed its subscribers that they are at risk of losing access to "Bravo, CNBC, E!, Golf Channel, MSNBC, Olympic Channel, Oxygen, Syfy, Telemundo, Universal Kids, NBC Universo, USA Network and NBC Sports

That is, Comcast has warned its customers that Comcast might not license its channels to Comcast anymore.

This is a "carriage dispute" - a dispute over how much the cable operator will pay the broadcaster. It's a common dispute to have.

4/

But in this case, Comcast's dispute is over the accounting fiction of how much one division of a vertical monopolist will nominally charge another to access its products.

5/
ECONOMY
Cory Doctorow #BLM
Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow
There is no shortage of takes about what's going on with Gamestop (and other surging stocks), Robinhood and Reddit's r/wallstreetbets, many of them contradictory - at least on the face of them. But I think it's possible for most of these takes to be right. Here's how.

1/


First you need to understand the underlying mechanics of the story. Stock markets are fundamentally a way of making bets, including bets on the outcome of other peoples' bets, and bets on the outcomes of THOSE bets.

2/

All this complexity creates lots of exploitable opportunities. Some of these opportunities are considered legitimate and are given respectable names like "arbitrage." Others are considered illegitimate, and are called disreputable things like "stock manipulation."

3/

A hypothetical Martian observing all this through a telescope could not tell you which kinds of bets were honest and which were dishonest, because the difference isn't about any objective standard, but rather, about power.

4/

The strategies of powerful people are legit, while the strategies of their would-be dethroners are not legit. Sometimes, even outright frauds are OK if they're done by people with enough power.

5/
TRADING , STOCK MKT
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Cory Doctorow #BLM
Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow
Surveillance companies assure us that they employ safeguards to ensure that their customers aren't abusing their products to engage in unlawful or unethical surveillance. And yet, inevitably, these companies abuse their tools THEMSELVES.

1/


It's almost as though being the kind of person who dreams of achieving incredible wealthy by spying on people makes you kind of an asshole.

2/

Like the people at @VerkadaHQ, "a fast-growing Silicon Valley surveillance startup" whose male employees used its own products to sexually harass their female colleagues and received the barest wrist-slaps for

Male Verkada employees maintained a private Slack channel where executives posted photos of female employees - captured with the company's own surveillance tools - and made sexually explicit remarks about them.

4/

When this came to light, the company's founder and CEO Filip Kaliszan called an all-hands meeting, expressed disappointment in the harassers, and told them that they could either quit...or lose some stock options. They chose the latter and remain employed there to this day.

5/
TECH
Cory Doctorow #BLM
Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow
Accountancy is more likely to be mocked than celebrated (or condemned), but accountants, far more than poets, are the unacknowledged legislators of the world.

1/


Though "bean counters" are employed by firms, they are notionally bound by a professional code of ethics every bit as serious as the Hippocratic Oath: "count things honestly." Without an accurate accounting of quantities, you can't make good decisions on quality.

2/

Though accountancy concerns itself with counting things, it is inextricably bound up with the realm of ideas, and accounting conventions (how you account for things) are philosophical matters, not empirical ones.

3/

It's no coincidence that #ModernMonetaryTheory owes more to accountancy than it does to economics. Economic accounts of the economy have an unfortunate tendency to proceed from first principles, creating models based on pure reason, without checking in on the actual world.

4/

For example, neoclassical econ's "homo economicus," the rational value-maximizing actor who populated so many models; or economists' insistence on targeting inflation with interest rates; or treating national "debts" like they were household debts.

5/
HISTORY
Cory Doctorow #BLM
Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow
Today's Twitter threads (a Twitter thread).

Inside: Planet Money on HP's myriad ripoffs; Strength in numbers; and more!

Archived at: https://t.co/esjoT3u5Gr

#Pluralistic

1/


On Feb 22, I'm delivering a keynote address for the NISO Plus conference, "The day of the comet: what trustbusting means for digital manipulation."

https://t.co/Z84xicXhGg

2/


Planet Money on HP's myriad ripoffs: Ink-stained wretches of the world, unite!

https://t.co/k5ASdVUrC2

3/


Strength in numbers: The crisis in accounting.

https://t.co/DjfAfHWpNN

4/


#15yrsago Bad Samaritan family won’t return found expensive camera https://t.co/Rn9E5R1gtV

#10yrsago What does Libyan revolution mean for https://t.co/Jz28qHVhrV? https://t.co/dN1e4MxU4r

5/
FOR LATER READ

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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. IMP ANNOUNCEMENT

I want to let you know when I made the decision to launch @StrikePac & directly get into electioneering I realized I wasn't going to continue issuing "race ratings" & "forecasts" each cycle- OBV that's a conflict of interest!

The hostility & sexism of

2. that world, I have to be honest, makes it very easy to walk away- the misogyny in the top tier of the election analysis community outside of @Center4Politics folks who are awesome & also more accurate than anyone else is intolerable. I'll still analyze politics, political

3. events, issue commentary, write articles, run the pod, go on TV, and generally succeed in ways that drive those men nuts but no, I won't be putting out ratings or "forecasts" anymore. Now, lots of people are asking me "what's going to happen in 2022?" The Midterm Effect, the

4. the long standing pattern of the president's party losing seats in the Midterm happens virtually every single cycle. I believe there are 2 recent exceptions: post-9/11 in the 2022 midterms and 1998 post-Lewinski gate. What I'm trying to do in building @StrikePac is completely

5. redesign/overhaul/modernize & reshape the way that Dems currently approach electioneering. I want to build a new organization with the funds capable of coming into cycle's like VA's 2021 cycle and the 2022 midterm cycle and start to deploy these new methodologies into the
CRYPTO
Hamza
Hamza
@hamzanitoo
1. Last week, @robbietilton sold this art piece for about 17305$ on @withFND.
I saw a lot of people asking questions on CryptoArt and NFTs (Non-fungible token) to understand how it works. I'll try to explain the basic concepts on this thread ↓


2. First, you don't directly buy the art piece, you buy a token. This token is what holds the asset that you're buying, it is a unique id that is used to represent what you bought. It can hold information like the name of the asset, an URL, a description, and so on.


3. On most marketplaces, you won't have a classic signup or login form when you'll want to create an NFT or buy one. Instead, it will be asked to connect your crypto wallet.

4. Now, why bother with a crypto wallet? Couldn't we just do an app that works with dollars? This is where things get interesting: when you buy an NFT, the data is not stored on the marketplace servers.

5. When you post a picture on Instagram, it is stored on their servers. If the app is shut down, your data might be deleted. But also, Instagram could delete your content if they want to, NFTs works differently.
CRYPTO
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CryptoKnowledge
CryptoKnowledge
@mawdudchoudhury
$BTC & $USDT & the criminal cartels that pump the prices of BTC while laundering out real fiat profits through their exchange partners. While tax evasion & general financial malfeasance is problematic enough, one has to wonder what else is occurring with the laundered funds ..1/

Despite the romantic, libertarian view of Bitcoin subverting the oppression of the centralized fiat economy, in reality, the backers were also engaging in drug smuggling, assassination markets & human trafficking. 2/

While some of Bitcoin’s ideology of civil disobedience & the hope of building a shining new economy upon the distributed ledger was exciting for a time, the Bitcoin Civil War side-tracked the project heavily. 3/

Once Dread Pirate Roberts and The Silk Road was closed down, nastier websites emerged, and so too did some of the shadiest venture capitalists in the world — necessitating the split of the Bitcoin protocol away from the BTC economy in 2017. But this requires some context. 4/

Unfortunately, in the era spanning 2014-2016, venture capitalists created media entities such as CoinDesk & Cointelegraph, development groups such as Blockstream & MIT Digital Currency Initiative, exchanges like Coinbase & Bitfinex, 5/
CRYPTO
I'm just a doggie boi
I'm just a doggie boi
@fubuloubu
I'm sure someone else has explained this, but it is just so cool and I want to explain how this works.


So Curve is awesome for swaps between similar assets, right? The fact that they trade very close to each other is a key part about how Curve works, using it's custom swap invariant function.

That's step 1

Step 2 is that Synthetix is awesome for creating "synthetic assets" (aka synths) which are assets that trade like other assets, that are backed by another, entirely different asset. Basically, a plastic banana that I can buy and sell like a real banana.

Synthetix has a feature that lets you swap between any two synths with zero slippage and a flat fee. That's because it is simply converting the sythentic asset into another synthetic asset, the backing for the synth doesn't change it just uses a different price oracle now.

This is important. Absolutely no slippage, at any size

Swap $1m sUSD for $1m sBTC? flat 0.3% fee

Swap $10m sUSD for $10m sBTC? flat 0.3% fee

swap $100m sUSD for $100m sBTC? Well, there isn't that many synths in Curve, yet but you get the point. The only limit is the pool depth
CRYPTO
Value DeFi Protocol
Value DeFi Protocol
@value_defi
We are actively working to launch on @binance Smart Chain #BSC .

To make this transition easy & understandable for everyone, we are answering most frequently asked questions here.

Ready? Go! 🔥

1/24

#DeFi #YieldFarming


Q1 - What are the benefits of holding the $VALUE token on the Ethereum Mainnet network? Give me reasons not to sell. Some are assuming that the VALUE token will be abandoned now that vBSWAP is being created. Can you clarify the use case for VALUE?

👉 $VALUE will always be a governance & profit receiving token of the whole ecosystem if staked in #vGov. With the new farming token on #BSC , gvVALUE holders will get extra rewards at BSC if they choose to bridge their gvVALUE to BSC & stake in gvVALUE-B/BUSD 98/2 pool.

Q2 - What do I need to do with my VALUE tokens that are staked in vGov? Is it OK to leave them in the vGov?

👉If you have VALUE but aren't staking in the vGov & you would like to participate in the BSC expansion, you will need to stake your VALUE in the vGov to receive gvVALUE.

If you are staking in vGov but don't see the correct gvVALUE amount in your wallet, go to vGov (https://t.co/udXn5IJtVx) to unlock your gvVALUE from the old contract. There will be a bridge from ETH to BSC to move gvVALUE and vUSD over.
ALL , CRYPTO

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And this is because, most of us are not even aware of an ancient Indian Sage named Kanada, who was the first to formulate the theory of atoms, almost 2600 yrs before Dalton and talk about earth's gravity.


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He saw plentiful grains scattered along the path leading to the shore of river Ganga. It's a tradition in Hindu families to scatter the grains for the ants and birds to feed on them. Suddenly, an ant caught his attention, who was feeding on a rice grain.


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Bharat: Advancement of earth’s earliest civilization

Glorious Vedic Architecture and Temple

Architecture in India was an extremely rich form of expression and highly developed science, with a deep heritage of spirituality in it. #FreeHinduTemple


The centre of all architectural development was the temple and temple or Mandir was the earthly home of God, and like the launching pad for the devotee’s consciousness to soar toward the Divine and the spiritual world.


The murti or deity of the Divine would be placed in the temple sanctum, around which all temple activity would revolve.

Such buildings were often elaborately decorated with stone, wood, plaster, etc. and carved or cut to depict the stories from the Puranas or other sacred texts


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some of which include the Mauryan, Ashoka, Gupta, Satavahana, Chedi, Chandella, Chalukya, Solanki, Pallava, Shola, Hoysala, Vijayanagar, and others.

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BRAHMA VAIVARTA PURAN: IMPORTANCE AND CHARACTERISTICS.

This Puran introduces us to way of Vedas. On the request of Narad Muni Bhagwan Saavarni had preached this Puran. It is a summary of Dharma, Arth, Moksha etc.


Listening to this Puran one gets automatically attached to Vishnu and Shiva and realize that there is no difference between them. Vyasji divided this book into four parts. It has eighteen thousand shlokas. This whole book is in the form of dialogue between Suutji and Maharishi's.

The first part Brahmkhand, consists of Shrishti description. Here Shri is known as Para Brahma and description of Gokul is also mentioned, It also narrates the argument between Brahma and Narad in which both were defeated, and then Narad went to Shiva to attain more gyan.

Shivji advised him to go to Bhagwan Saavarni for this. Narad goes to Saavarni ashram to seek Knowledge and is totally amazed by the sorroundings.

Next is Prakriti khand which consists of dialogue between Narad and Saavarni where they discuss the

Importance of Shri Krishna through various stories. Then there is the discussion of Prakriti and its various hues. Listening to this gets you wealth.
Next is Ganesh Khand which describes the Punyak vrat done by Parvati ji. After this it narrates the birth of Kartikeya and Ganesh.
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Meet Shah
@ms89_meet
Strong Monopolies:

IRCTC 100% Market share in Rail Network.

IEX >90% market share in power trading.

Zydus wellness >90% market share in sugar free product.

Eicher motors >85% market share in 250cc bikes category.

MCX >85% market share in commodity trading.

Coal India >80% market share in coal production in India.

ITC >75% market share in cigarettes.

Honda Siel >75% in portable power generators.

Hindustan Zinc >75% market share in primary zinc industry.

Asahi India Glass >70% market share in automotive glass.

NRB Bearings >70% market share in needle roller bearings.

Pidilite >65% market share in adhesives.

CAMS >65% market share in RTA within mutual fund industry.

Time Technoplast >65% market share in polymer based industrial packaging.

Concor >65% market share in domestic container cargo transport.

Exide >60% market share in lead batteries.

Naukri >60% market share in the Indian job market space.

Praj >60% market share in ethanol plant installing.

Indiamart Intermesh >55% market share in the online B2B Classified space.

Borosil Renewables >55% market share in Lab glass.

Vst Tillers >50% market share in
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Delta corp >50% in online poker games.

Vinati Organics >50% market share in IBB.
GENERICLEARNINGS , GENERAL TWEER , INTRESTING TOPIC
GREG ISENBERG
GREG ISENBERG
@gregisenberg
Life is crazy. Today is a good day to stop and reflect

10 simple questions that CHANGED my life

(startup life, personal life)

Here they are:

Q: Can you really control that?

Smart people know what they can and cannot control

If you're living in the past, you're nostalgic
If you're living in the future, you're anxious
If you're living in the present, you're at peace

Q: Did you start today with a victory?

Starting every day with a victory sets you up to win

I don't care what it is:

- Make your bed
- Make a wonderful coffee
- Hug your wife or children

No such thing as a small win. It's a win!

You'll win more, if you start winning early

Q: What are you optimizing for?

#MFSA
1. Money
2. Freedom
3. Stability
4. Ability

The world rewards those who are focused

Perfectly prioritize

Are you being optimistic?

Guaranteed: more luck when you're optimistic
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