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Mark_Coughlan
Mark_Coughlan
@Mark_Coughlan
Mega thread on seismic few days of the pandemic in Ireland.

đź“ŤThe govt implemented level five.

đź“ŤMore info about the UK variant.

đź“ŤAnd NPHET held one of the most important briefings in months on New Years Eve.

What's happened and where does it leave us now?

If you've understandably avoided news for the last week or more this should bring you up to date:

First:đź“ŤStay home unless you have to leave, no visitors bar support bubbles, exercise within 5km. Essential shops only to open.

Full info:

How did we get here? The current restrictions were introduced on Dec 30 by An Taoiseach.

Prior to that it was to be 'level 5 with adjustments'. Non-essential retail, gyms, tennis and golf clubs were to remain open, schools were to return on Jan

The 'level five with adjustments' plan was only introduced on Dec 23. It was supposed to be reviewed on January 12. Yet it was quickly overtaken, and superseded with stronger measures on December 30.

What happened that it was needed, and needed strengthening?

Background first: Cases flatlined into Dec around 300.

The hope was they'd fall further in the early weeks due to a lag effect from the previous level five of Oct-to-end-Nov, but they didn't. The baseline was about 300. In Oct, NPHET's aim was <100.
HEALTH , COVID 19
Mark_Coughlan
Mark_Coughlan
@Mark_Coughlan
Thread contd: Gap was 4,000 yesterday. Now it's much bigger again.

The system wasn't designed to handle the influx of testing, Prof Nolan said he's accounted for it in models.

This means confirmed cases are not representative. It's worse than it looks, if looking at just cases.


Hospitalisations are more concrete, you're either there and positive or you're not. The current trend is not good, see images: the upward tick isn't as lagged behind the case increase as it was in previous waves.


What are we looking at for January?

The ESRI provides health capacity modelling. If we get R back below 1 very soon, we'll be looking at 700 to 1000 people in hospital with Covid at the one time in January.

Early pandemic peak was 880.

If it's worse than that - something Prof Nolan said is 'hard to countenance' yesterday, the system would be under further strain.

Last time we peaked like that the health system was essentially closed to nearly all but Covid, the aim is avoid needing to do that.

Other parts of the system are already straining. In the short term, NPHET has decided that testing capacity should be focused more on people who are symptomatic: Close contacts of confirmed cases won't now automatically be tested.
COVID 19
Elaine Doyle
Elaine Doyle
@laineydoyle
Everyone knows that the case numbers in Ireland aren't real, right? Or rather, that they're wildly undercounted?

That we've hit a ceiling of 1700 cases per day *because that's the max no. of cases that can be confirmed* by an over-subscribed public health system, right?

Right?

Officially, Ireland had 1,754 cases of coronavirus today.

But that's not the true picture of the state of covid infection.

There's a backlog of 9000 positive swabs awaiting verification. In @ShaneHastingsIE helpful graph, that's the bit under the red line, scribbled in yellow.


To be clear: those aren't people waiting to be tested.

They're *positive swabs*. Positive results. People who went in, got a swab, and had virus was detected.

People with covid.

To be fair: NPHET are very, very clear about this. They've been flagging this for days – there's been a backlog building since just before Christmas, and only getting bigger every day.

In today's release, @President_MU added an extra statement drawing attention to the disparity.


So why aren't they included in the numbers?

@marietcasey explains: you need to double-check for duplicates. Did one person get multiple swabs? Could this be a +ve from earlier illness, since resolved?

It requires a skilled professional and it takes
COVID 19