A classic early sign of a commodity cycle.

Mining industry nonfarm payrolls near historical lows.

This happened in early 1970s & 2000s.
Both marked the onset of a commodities bull market.

Labor & capital constraints are the amplifiers of bull market in resource stocks.

👇👇👇

Energy & soft commodities are obviously not mining related.

See below the nonfarm payrolls for oil & gas extraction which is also at historical lows.

To recall:

The green agenda hasn’t even started.
The decline in agricultural workers look even more severe.

To be fair, this is not a domestic problem.
We’re are experiencing similar issues worldwide.
This pandemic has truly magnified a long-term trend of labor reduction and under investments in the commodities space.

Resource companies have been facing a deep recession for some time now with not enough workers willing to enter this industry.
On top of it:

Government policies seem to be discouraging folks from return to the labor market.

People continue to leave the labor force like never before.
The supply shortage problem is much more permanent than most realize.

This upward pressure in consumer prices is probably just getting started.
See a few examples:

“Coke Cola will raise prices to offset higher commodity costs”

https://t.co/ke4CgsPm70
“Higher commodity costs lead to price hikes from Kimberly-Clark and other consumer giants”

https://t.co/434i1TTtTx
More broadly:

“Finance chiefs look to price increases to offset higher commodities costs”

https://t.co/5Eo7vgDHlb

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1/“What would need to be true for you to….X”

Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?

A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:


2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to

- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal

3/ Normally, we aren’t that direct. Example from startup/VC land:

Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.

Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.

4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?

To get clarity.

You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.

It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.

5/ Staying in the context of soliciting investors, the question is “what would need to be true for you to want to invest (or partner with us on this journey, etc)?”

Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.