BC BREXIT
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

In June 2016, no one knew about No Deal AKA the WTO Option. Almost no one was calling for it. I had published something in 2015 about what would happen in a No Deal situation. It was not until June 2016 that people picked up on it and the FT phoned me. No one understood. THREAD

 In June 2016, a lot of people didn’t expect Cameron to resign.
In the immediate aftermath of the vote, judging by their ‘soft’ responses, Vote Leave leader Boris Johnson and Vote Leave architect Daniel Hannan didn’t expect & didn't understand/foresee the radicalisation of their own side.
No one expected all Vote Leave figures to basically scarper and leave the EEA behind during summer 2016.
No one expected Northern Ireland to grow into the enormous issue it became.
No one expected what came after Theresa May’s quite measured leadership launch speech.
No one expected ‘Brexit means Brexit’ to mean anything other than the UK would leave EU membership.
No one expected Boris to be knifed by Gove allowing Theresa May to win.
No one expected Nick Timothy to be a complete moron.
No one expected ‘Citizens of Nowhere’ and ‘Saboteurs’
No one expected certain former EFTA-EEA-Brexit supporters to reveal themselves as out-and-out racists.
No one expected David Davis to be put in charge of Brexit. Nor Boris Johnson to be made foreign secretary.
No one expected Trump to be elected (yes it is relevant)
No one expected Article 50 to be invoked with no plan whatsoever.
No one expected Corbyn to last as Labour leader as long as he did.
No one expected the General Election of 2017.
When the 2017 election was called, no one expected the appalling Tory campaign nor the result (a majority of over 100 looked more likely at the start). No one expected Corbyn to do so well and come within 10,000 votes of winning.
No one expected Chequers – the creation of a Turkey on Europe’s north-west frontier
No one expected the ministerial support for Chequers. Nor the subsequent resignations.
No one expected a second referendum until the shitshow that had played out over 2 years eventually prompted a campaign for one.
No one expected the ERG’s deeper and deeper madness.
No one expected UKIP policies to become government policies.
No one expected the govt's blind rejection of an extension to the transition period.
No one expected David Frost – a Remainer - to be made Chief Negotiator, nor to then turn into as big a Brexit idiot as everyone else in government.
No one expected the indicative votes. No one expected the extraordinary result of the indicative votes.
No one expected MPs who had been calling for a customs union….to vote against a customs union.
No one expected the descent of supposedly sensible Leave figures to lament the radicalisation of their own side but to then join in that radicalisation
No one expected a business-supporting Conservative minister would want to “fuck business”. And the same minister to then be made Conservative leader.
No one expected opposition MPs to permit a general election in 2019.
No one expected No Deal-fearing Michael Gove to reverse ferret on No Deal.
No one expected the red wall to crumble and no one expected the Conservatives to win Blyth Valley.
No one expected liberal, cuddly, single-market-liking Boris Johnson to continue doubling down on the road to Ever Purer Sovereignty
No one expected the biggest pandemic for 100 years.
No one expected Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain to be sacked from Downing Street
No one expected zero change after Cummings had gone.
No one expected the negotiation to go on this long
No one expected in 2016 to see Northern Ireland and Gibraltar put on much faster paths to reunification with their immediate neighbours.
No one expected the British state to deliver a catalogue of lies and wrong turns to the point that we ended up staring down the barrel of No Deal. And a thin deal that wasn’t much better
No one expected the phrase “this is what you voted for” to become an ironic jibe precisely because no one did expect this.
But everyone has been surprised by each grim twist and turn, and yet a few of the same people say I should have predicted all of it. I appreciate the confidence in my prophetic powers but if I was that good, I would’ve ignored this whole thing and enjoyed my £billions instead.
Merry Christmas to all followers and retweeters. I hope 2021 eventually brings us all some peace.
PS: OK I'll give way on the Nick Timothy point.

More from Brexit

Zach Elsbury \U0001f333\U0001f536
Zach Elsbury 🌳🔶...
@ZachElsbury
On this, I think it’s highly unlikely to occur in the timeframe given. For several reasons, I don’t think it’s realistic for Scotland to secede, and then join the EU, in 9 years.

For that, thanks goes to Brexit.

A thread because why not...


Two important dates: March 2016 and January 1st 2021.

Firstly, prior to the 2014 referendum, the Nationalists proposed a date of March 2016 to secede.

Secondly, today - the end completion of Brexit five-and-a-half years after Cameron’s majority in 2015.

Brexit has demonstrated many things, primarily that splitting unions is not easy. The UKs membership of the EU was 47 years and by the end it was not at the heart of the EU. The Union has existed for over 300 as a unitary state.

Dividing a unitary state, like the UK, will not be easy. Frankly, it will make Brexit look simple. Questions of debt, currency, defence, and more will need to be resolved ... something not addressed with Brexit.

Starting with debt. Scotland will end up with its proportionate share of the UKs national debt. It’s not credible to suggest otherwise. Negotiating what is proportionate won’t be easy when both sides disagree.

It’s importance will be seen shortly.
BREXIT
John Lichfield
John Lichfield
@john_lichfield
Fish thread.
Having read the Brexit deal, I believe B. Johnson misled the nation on Thurs when he said Britain could catch “all the fish that it wants ” in UK waters in 5 years’ time. The clear presumption in the text is that EU fleets will have similar access after 2026.1/12

The UK fish industry will have to pay a high price in EU import tariffs if that access is withdrawn. Overall… the deal falls far short of the exaggerated “sea of opportunity” promises made to UK fishermen. 2/12

The headline quota compromise - reducing EU catches in the UK 200 mile zone by 25% over five and a half years – is balanced enough. But different fishers will study the small-print with delight OR anger. Some EU quotas will be cut more than others. 3/12

Fisheries, we were told, would be a big Brexit winner. No it won’t. On this deal, the UK industry will certainly lose more from Brexit (no more frictionless access to the EU market) than it gains (incremental, extra quotas over the next 5 years). 4/12

First…the length of the deal. The 5 and 1/2 years of cuts in EU quotas/increases in UK quotas, are laid out in annexes to the main treaty. The last column says “2026 onwards” In other words, the presumption is there will be no further cuts in EU quotas after that date. 5/12
BREXIT
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Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
🚨🚨🚨🇪🇺🇬🇧🚛🚒🇪🇺🇬🇧🚨🚨🚨 serious #brexit story alert - companies now starting to see penny drop on what rules of origin does to supply chains (food for example) but Brussels seems deaf to both EU & U.K. pleading. A bellwether? 😬 Stay with me. 1/


So first the problem: its a tad complicated but basically goods that are imported into UK and then 'hubbed' onwards into Ireland or other parts of the EU are facing full EU tariffs - this is particularly bad for food stuffs, which attract high tariffs. Why is this? /2

It's a function of the Rules of Origin clauses that mean that goods have to sufficiently "originate" in the UK to qualify for zero-tariff entry to EU (and vice versa).

But to qualify, you have to do something to the goods - process them or add value - not just punt them on /3

The brilliant @AnnaJerzewska does a better job than me of explaining, but the important thing is that this is a nightmare for companies that 'hub' /distribute products through the UK - and that's both EU and UK companies /4


So both the @Foodanddrinkfed and EU groups like @CAOBISCO_EU (chocs etc) say they want the EU Commission to fix this with a derogation/waiver that takes into account proximity and interdependence of EU/UK supply chains. /5
BREXIT
Nick Marro
Nick Marro
@nickm4rro
1/ Lots of good analysis out there on why the EU-China CAI is a bad decision in the context of Xinjiang, transatlantic partnerships, etc. But I also think that even the trade/econ benefits of the CAI look quite limited. Thread:

2/ It highlights, as a win, that China’s preservation of existing liberalizations. That’s positive, but not really a big problem; the bigger issue is stagnation, where reform pledges have failed to materialize after years/decades of promises. Great example is in the FDI openings,


3/ which are highlighted to include cloud, auto, fin services etc—all areas of EU/MNC interest. Thing is, these openings aren’t new. China has begun opening auto/finance since 2018/19, while the 50% cap on cloud services has remained unchanged since 2015 (or before if we consider


4/ WTO ascension commitments vs the 2015 Telecom Catalogue, but that’s for another day). So these are existing openings that are repackaged as “wins.” More critical issue beyond FDI caps is around licensing issuance, which still big problem. Arguably some more significance in

5/ R&D and health? Not an expert, but the FDI conditions (eg hospitals only in certain cities) are limiting, while R&D could be complicated by data/info controls. It’s also unclear how existing tech transfer prohibitions exceed existing protections in the foreign investment law,
BREXIT
Steve Brain MCCT \U0001f980\U0001f3e5 \U0001f499
Steve Brain MCCT 🦀🏥 💙...
@StephenBrain
Just read @MarinaHyde's recent piece. The list of fuck ups is endless, I can't honestly begin to say how sad my own country and government have made me. From the covid deaths, bungled exams and lack of ppe (remember that?) To brexit and fishing rights. My colleague voted for ...

...brexit 'for the fisherman', I would how they feel about it now? An ex-colleague of mine, life long Labour voter, said she wouldn't vote for Corbyn "because he is scruffy" and said, of the early Corona stages, "at least Corby's not in power". I wonder if she still thinks that?.

I bet he wouldn't have spaffed £22Bn up the wall of a failed test and trace system. It has become more and more clear that this regime is only interested in turning a profit. From the failed track and trace system through free school meals to the contracts for cunts, where Tories

give their mates contracts even though they have literally no experience of procuring the goods required, like Hancock's pal getting the test tube contract, which, by the way, were useless, splitting at the bottom when you tried to seal them so that they spilled their contents.

They then have their mouthpieces like Julia H-B and Toby Young. Young's father must be spinning so fast in his grave he could become part of Elon Musk's Boring Company. They spit contempt at desperate researchers and doctors who are trying to save lives. So now we have a higher..
BREXIT

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