I don't expect either to happen in 2021, but have to pay attention to these.
1/ The #Bitcoin bear case has two two components:
The macro, and the miners.
THREAD 👇
I don't expect either to happen in 2021, but have to pay attention to these.
=> the more capacity installed, the higher the difficulty, and the higher the cost.
These are the happy times.
Here's an old thread on that topic. Mind that the bitcoin produced a month is now 27,375, or about 900 a day. This quantity halved in May.
https://t.co/PPPtXM6hOB
1/ A thread on bitcoin mining game theory.
— Alex Kr\xfcger (@krugermacro) October 10, 2019
The Bitcoin network produces approximately 54,750 bitcoin a month in block rewards.
Every month. pic.twitter.com/l7Y6BElamT
That's why hashrate increases lag price increases.
This adds to reflexivity and helps prices further up.
Miners did hold inventories back late 2020, but their selling volumes have already increased in 2021, with price in the 30s-40s.
1800 bitcoin/day * $10,000 = $18,000,000/day
900 bitcoin/day * 35,000 = $31,500,000/day
@cryptoquant_com
@glassnode
@thetokenanalyst
All require a subscription unfortunately.
I mostly use CryptoQuant: https://t.co/AaOPJjxt7h
Their founder @ki_young_ju shares very useful data on Twitter.
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— Sarah Frier (@sarahfrier) November 15, 2018
In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.
In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.
This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.
In the end, the difficult question of attribution was settled by us pointing to the DNI report instead of saying Russia or GRU directly. In my pre-briefs with members of Congress, I made it clear that we believed this action was GRU.
