Inauguration thread: With Joe Biden taking the oath of office tomorrow, what better time to think back 32 years to the inauguration speech of another seasoned former VP and the resounding (and often misunderstood) impacts on US policy toward Iran that linger to this day. 1/15

When George HW Bush took office in 1989, Iran was not near the top of a foreign policy agenda dominated by deterioration of USSR, potential reunification of Germany, and turmoil in China. Iran was severely weakened and its nuclear program and regional influence was limited. 2/15
But Iran-aligned groups continued to hold Americans hostage in Lebanon, an issue that weighed on Bush as it did Reagan. In his inaugural, Bush called on Iran to help bring home those Americans, pledging that "good will begets good will." 3/15
For Bush, resolving the hostage issue was the "sine qua non" of improved relations with Iran.

He signed a classified policy directive instructing US to "be prepared for a normal relationship with Iran" and authorized the beginning of indirect negotiations. 4/15
Iran took the offer seriously, and President Rafsanjani worked to secure the release of hostages, via the tireless UN envoy Giandomenico Picco.

By the end of 1991, all Americans were freed from Lebanon. The US began to offer some promised "good will" in response. 5/15
US paid compensation for Iranian military materiel impounded after 1979; it permitted US companies to import Iranian oil; and it supported the UN's judgement at the end of 1991 that Iraq was responsible for the Iran-Iraq War, a longstanding Iranian demand. 6/15
But the US recognized that Iran expected more "good will," and it initiated a policy review in late 1991/early 1992 to decide "Should goodwill now beget goodwill?" in the words of Bruce Riedel, who served on the NSC at the time. 7/15
The decision was "no." The policy review concluded in April 1992 that not only should "goodwill not beget goodwill," but Iran was a threat that needed to be contained.

It was a contradiction of Bush's inaugural pledge that left Rafsanjani out to dry. Why?

8/15
The answer has to do with an expansion of Iranian nuclear and terrorist activity during precisely the time of the policy review.

This included the March 1992 suicide attack on the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, carried out by Hezbollah. 9/15
At the same time, Iran engaged in a wide-ranging campaign to acquire sensitive pieces of nuclear technology. Tehran expanded nuclear ties with China, India, Argentina, Germany, and Russia, at a scale and scope that concerned US officials. 10/15
Much of this technology has plausible civilian applications. But this Iranian campaign came a time of shifting attitudes towards "dual use" technology and a rising sensitivity about the risks of nuclear proliferation, given the dissolution of USSR and secret Iraqi program. 11/15
This led the CIA to publicly assess for the first time that Iran was "seeking to acquire a nuclear weapon capability. Barring significant. technical input from abroad, however, the Iranians are not likely to achieve that goal before the year 2000." 12/15
Due to both terrorism and growing concerns about Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions, good will did not beget good will.

The Bush administration pivoted to a much more forward-leaning posture toward Iran, which Clinton adopted in his "Dual Containment" policy. 13/15
A final note: Israel played essentially no role in the US conclusion that Iran represented a threat. Remarkably, Israeli leaders were so nonplussed about Iran that the military intelligence directorate had closed its Iran office by 1990. 14/15
More details are in my journal article, "United States Iran Policy and the Role of Israel, 1990-1993," including more about Israel's threat perceptions and the impact of the Gulf War on US-Iran ties.

https://t.co/pN6O5lOBHa

15/15

More from Biden

Did you miss the Inauguration of the 46th President of the United States,Joe Biden?This Thread is the perfect synopsis for everything you need to know!

Donald Trump left the White House Wednesday morning. For the first time in 150 years the sitting president didn’t attend the swearing-in of his successor.


Kamala Harris, the first woman and person of color to hold the office of vice president was sworn in by Justice Sonia Sotomayor, the first Latina member of the Supreme Court.


Chief Justice John Roberts later administered the presidential oath to Biden as Jill Biden held the bible and as his children, Hunter Biden and Ashley Biden, stood by.


President Joe Biden gave his Inaugural address. Check out the full transcript below.

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A THREAD ON @SarangSood

Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.

Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen

1. Keeps following volatility super closely.

Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.

Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.


2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.


3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result

He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.


4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega

Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
दधीचि ऋषि को मनाही थी कि वह अश्विनी कुमारों को किसी भी अवस्था में ब्रह्मविद्या का उपदेश नहीं दें। ये आदेश देवराज इन्द्र का था।वह नहीं चाहते थे कि उनके सिंहासन को प्रत्यक्ष या परोक्ष रुप से कोई भी खतरा हो।मगर जब अश्विनी कुमारों ने सहृदय प्रार्थना की तो महर्षि सहर्ष मान गए।


और उन्होनें ब्रह्मविद्या का ज्ञान अश्विनि कुमारों को दे दिया। गुप्तचरों के माध्यम से जब खबर इन्द्रदेव तक पहुंची तो वे क्रोध में खड़ग ले कर गए और महर्षि दधीचि का सर धड़ से अलग कर दिया।मगर अश्विनी कुमार भी कहां चुप बैठने वाले थे।उन्होने तुरंत एक अश्व का सिर महर्षि के धड़ पे...


...प्रत्यारोपित कर उन्हें जीवित रख लिया।उस दिन के पश्चात महर्षि दधीचि अश्वशिरा भी कहलाए जाने लगे।अब आगे सुनिये की किस प्रकार महर्षि दधीचि का सर काटने वाले इन्द्र कैसे अपनी रक्षा हेतु उनके आगे गिड़गिड़ाए ।

एक बार देवराज इन्द्र अपनी सभा में बैठे थे, तो उन्हे खुद पर अभिमान हो आया।


वे सोचने लगे कि हम तीनों लोकों के स्वामी हैं। ब्राह्मण हमें यज्ञ में आहुति देते हैं और हमारी उपासना करते हैं। फिर हम सामान्य ब्राह्मण बृहस्पति से क्यों डरते हैं ?उनके आने पर क्यों खड़े हो जाते हैं?वे तो हमारी जीविका से पलते हैं। देवर्षि बृहस्पति देवताओं के गुरु थे।

अभिमान के कारण ऋषि बृहस्पति के पधारने पर न तो इन्द्र ही खड़े हुए और न ही अन्य देवों को खड़े होने दिया।देवगुरु बृहस्पति इन्द्र का ये कठोर दुर्व्यवहार देख कर चुप चाप वहां से लौट गए।कुछ देर पश्चात जब देवराज का मद उतरा तो उन्हे अपनी गलती का एहसास हुआ।