Thread/

$BABA cloud business is being completed missed by the market.

Let me explain why Alibaba Cloud, which makes up just ~10% of LTM revenues, could become worth more than the entire current market cap by FY25

1/

Alibaba Cloud made US$9.2 Billion in revenue for FY21 and grew 33% YoY.

They have ~38% market share of the cloud industry in China. Which is slightly more market share than AWS has in the US.
2/

In their investor presentation, $BABA projected that the cloud market in China will grow at a 37% CAGR until 2025.

The IDC estimated the CAGR to be 33% over the next 5 years.

The global cloud market is estimated to grow at 17.5% annually.
3/

If we take the IDC’s more conservative annual growth estimation of 33%, and $BABA maintains their 38% market share, they would generate $28.8 billion of revenue in FY25.

Alibaba cloud even benefit from scale economies and continue to take more market share.
4/

If we apply a 10x sales multiple we get to a $288 billion valuation for the cloud business in FY25.

Analysts typically value AWS, Azure & Google cloud at closer to 15x sales. So a 10x multiple for a company with more domestic market share and a higher CAGR isn’t unreasonable
5/

The $288 Billion FY25 valuation is equal to 88% of the current $BABA market cap. Whilst it currently contributes to just ~10% of the total revenues.

The upside from Alibaba cloud is something the market seems to be missing, although it is uncertain.
6/

I’ll discuss China’s cloud industry in depth in my newsletter write-up on $TCEHY which is out in a few days.

Sign-up for free for a monthly deep dive.
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🌿𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝒂 𝑺𝒕𝒂𝒓 : 𝑫𝒉𝒓𝒖𝒗𝒂 & 𝑽𝒊𝒔𝒉𝒏𝒖

Once upon a time there was a Raja named Uttānapāda born of Svayambhuva Manu,1st man on earth.He had 2 beautiful wives - Suniti & Suruchi & two sons were born of them Dhruva & Uttama respectively.
#talesofkrishna https://t.co/E85MTPkF9W


Now Suniti was the daughter of a tribal chief while Suruchi was the daughter of a rich king. Hence Suruchi was always favored the most by Raja while Suniti was ignored. But while Suniti was gentle & kind hearted by nature Suruchi was venomous inside.
#KrishnaLeela


The story is of a time when ideally the eldest son of the king becomes the heir to the throne. Hence the sinhasan of the Raja belonged to Dhruva.This is why Suruchi who was the 2nd wife nourished poison in her heart for Dhruva as she knew her son will never get the throne.


One day when Dhruva was just 5 years old he went on to sit on his father's lap. Suruchi, the jealous queen, got enraged and shoved him away from Raja as she never wanted Raja to shower Dhruva with his fatherly affection.


Dhruva protested questioning his step mother "why can't i sit on my own father's lap?" A furious Suruchi berated him saying "only God can allow him that privilege. Go ask him"