1/

$BABA in their most recent investor presentation reported the China cloud market size in 2020 at $32B of which they have a market share of ~30% which equated to $11B in revenues FY21.

Now here’s where it gets pretty crazy …

2/

They estimate the China cloud market size in 2025 to be $154B which is a 37% CAGR.

If $BABA maintain ~30% market share that will be $46B in revenues from the cloud business in FY25. Over 4x the current revenue for Alibaba cloud.
3/

Western cloud businesses like AWS and Azure are valued at ~15x sales or more by most analysts.

An equivalent multiple to $BABA cloud in 2025 would give a value of $693b which is over double the current market cap for Alibaba.
4/

If we put a 50% discount on the cloud business in FY25 for regulatory concerns and use a 7x sales multiple .. we still get to the current market cap in value.

Cloud is only ~9% of LTM revenues for $BABA, yet the FY25 value of cloud is potentially equal to the market cap.

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So the cryptocurrency industry has basically two products, one which is relatively benign and doesn't have product market fit, and one which is malignant and does. The industry has a weird superposition of understanding this fact and (strategically?) not understanding it.


The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.

This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.

The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."

This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.