Law of unintended consequences warns that an intervention in a complex system invariably creates unanticipated and often undesirable outcomes.

The consequence can be a positive benefit, called windfall or serendipity. 1/n

Aspirin was introduced as a pain killer. But it was found out that, it has anticoagulant properties, which prevents heart attacks.

In India, there are many cities which has Army Cantonements. 2/n
Large, sprawling areas of land in the heart of the city, with lot of greenery, peaceful atmosphere and walking space around it. Years later, when the city around has become concrete jungles, these cantonment areas are perhaps the only saving grace in an otherwise crowded city 3/n
A classic case was MGR reintroducing (Kamaraj was the brain behind this but MGR took it to a great level) the noon meal scheme in mid 1970s, which led to the birth rate falling rapidly in Tamil Nadu by late 1980's, which was totally unintended. 4/n
More rural parents sent their girl children to school so that they can get the noon meal,and these children attained reproductive age by late 1980s, 5/n
and when the family planning workers went to them to explain the benefits of family planning, because of their education, the girls were much more receptive.6/n
There could be unexpected drawbacks. While the computers and internet have changed the way we work for the better, making us very efficient, it has killed original writing with people resorting to copy, pasting whether at college or at work. 7/n
This has adversely affected original thinking.

While monsoon brings the much wanted rains, so essential for drinking water and for agricultural purpose,the drawback is that it also results in waterborne diseases spreading. 8/n
Industry set up in a rural area, instead of providing job to locals, may result in locals migrating, as they will be displaced from their land and vocation.

It can result in a perverse effect. By this we mean that the consequence is diametrically opposite to what is intended 9/n
A book or a film is banned to prevent public from reading or watching it. But what happens in reality is the contrary. The action results in the book or the films sale increasing leaps and bounds through internet and through the grey market, 10/n
with more people reading or watching than it would have had the ban been not effected.

Another classic case is prohibition. The liquour consumption actually goes up when the prohibition is in place, as people get a perverse satisfaction in defying a law. n/n

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I’m torn on how to approach the idea of luck. I’m the first to admit that I am one of the luckiest people on the planet. To be born into a prosperous American family in 1960 with smart parents is to start life on third base. The odds against my very existence are astronomical.


I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.

In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.

So, was I “lucky” to be born when I was—nothing I had any control over—and that I came of age just as huge databases and computers were advancing to the point where I could use those tools to write “What Works on Wall Street?” Absolutely.

Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.