BC ALL
Saved by @mhbx

The potentially record-shattering extreme heat weather forecasts for the Pacific NW are pretty shocking, but some folks keep getting the climate change connection wrong.

 This guy for instance: https://t.co/36IaHNDLNq
He states as a supposed ‘golden rule’ that “the bigger the temperature extreme the SMALLER the contribution of global warming”. This is nonsense - but it’s worth thinking about why.
Any extreme event can have both ultimate and proximate causes. The proximate cause could be a frontal system, a jet stream meander, a hurricane etc. which are not unique. But this all takes place within the climatology, which as we know, is changing.
The Mass claim is based on a naive accounting of the proximate and ultimate causes. He takes the weather-related anomaly (large) and compares it to climatological anomaly (smaller) and concludes that the climate change fraction gets smaller if the weather anomaly grows.
But this leads to a logical paradox. Take a situation where climate change now means that we can experience an extreme that could effectively never* happen under the previous climate [how near we are to this point is not relevant for the argument].

*a v. low probability
Mass would claim that this situation has less of climate change attribution than a more common event, even though it would never have happened without climate change. That is absurd.
Instead it is much more coherent (and practical) to judge attribution based on thresholds. What is likelihood of exceeding, say, 105°F under the previous climate (P) and the new situation (N)? The fractional attribution to climate change is then (N-P)/N.
So if P=0 (the extreme was never going to happen before), the attribution to climate change is 100%. If the odds of an event have doubled, then climate change is 50% responsible etc. This is far more intuitive and more closely aligned with impacts which are often threshold-based.
I discussed this more thoroughly a while back: https://t.co/fGxBioWDJr and the analysis still holds up.
What it means for the Pacific NW is that there will be a very high attribution to climate change for the upcoming event and the exact numbers will depend on how hot it really gets. And the hotter it gets, the larger the attribution will be.

Regardless of cause though, stay safe!

More from All

Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5
Mangottu Bhagavathi Temple
#Palakkad #Kerala
#keralatemples 🚩

Mangottu Bhagavathi Temple is situated in Athipotta near Alathur of palakkad district. Devi is kshipraprasadi here and grants relief to those who worship with full faith.
Mookken Chathen, situated on the Northern 👇


side of the temple, is guarding Devi here.
Story says that, once there lived a weaver named Kuttan who was a Devi Bhaktan. During one festival time Kuttan was so pleased by the Devi Vigraham that he requested her to come along with him. At that time wind blew heavily and Cloths


in Vigraham flew. Kuttan immediately decorated Devi with his cloth which stuck to Vigraham and returned to his village and with his Umbrella. Devi came with him in that Umbrella and stayed in his place. This place is Mangottu Bhagavathi temple now.

Amme Narayana
🙏🕉🙏
ALL
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
IT WAS RISHI KANADA WHO GAVE THE ATOMIC THEORY & TALKED ABOUT THE GRAVITY OF EARTH, 2600 YEARS BEFORE AN APPLE FELL IN FRONT OF NEWTON'S EYES:

Scientists of the modern world credit an English scientist John Dalton (1766 CE -1844 CE) for the Atomic Theory.


And this is because, most of us are not even aware of an ancient Indian Sage named Kanada, who was the first to formulate the theory of atoms, almost 2600 yrs before Dalton and talk about earth's gravity.


Rishi Kanada was born around 600 BCE in Dwarka, Gujarat and he was the son of a philosopher named Ulka. He was fascinated with the minute detailing of the things right from his childhood. Once, when he was very young, he accompanied his father on a journey to Prayaga.


He saw plentiful grains scattered along the path leading to the shore of river Ganga. It's a tradition in Hindu families to scatter the grains for the ants and birds to feed on them. Suddenly, an ant caught his attention, who was feeding on a rice grain.


He was mesmerised by this very fact that how a small grain of rice becomes food for the ant but to satisfy the hunger of a person so many grains are needed together. This incidence made him realize the importance of a single grain of rice.
ALL
Advertisement
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
Master Thread of all my threads!

Hello!! 👋

• I have curated some of the best tweets from the best traders we know of.

• Making one master thread and will keep posting all my threads under this.

• Go through this for super learning/value totally free of cost! 😃

1. 7 FREE OPTION TRADING COURSES FOR


2. THE ABSOLUTE BEST 15 SCANNERS EXPERTS ARE USING

Got these scanners from the following accounts:

1. @Pathik_Trader
2. @sanjufunda
3. @sanstocktrader
4. @SouravSenguptaI
5. @Rishikesh_ADX


3. 12 TRADING SETUPS which experts are using.

These setups I found from the following 4 accounts:

1. @Pathik_Trader
2. @sourabhsiso19
3. @ITRADE191
4.


4. Curated tweets on HOW TO SELL STRADDLES.

Everything covered in this thread.
1. Management
2. How to initiate
3. When to exit straddles
4. Examples
5. Videos on
OPTION SELLING , OPTIONSTRATEGIES , CATEGORY
Save To Bookmarks \uea00
Save To Bookmarks ...
@SaveToBookmarks
@buzz_chronicles @AchuthArora @Artofphysique_ @rattibha Ahoy!

Now your tweet was bookmarked.

To access and manage your bookmarks, please register with savetobookmarks .com.
ALL
Save To Bookmarks \uea00
Save To Bookmarks ...
@SaveToBookmarks
@buzz_chronicles @AchuthArora @OllieEmberson @rattibha No more missed tweet 😉!

I saved this tweet for you.

You must register on savetobookmarks .com in order to access and manage your bookmarks.
ALL

You May Also Like

Nikita Poojary
Nikita Poojary
@niki_poojary
Catch me if you can @Mitesh_Engr

Time for a🧵
Mitesh Sir's EXPIRY Option Selling 101:
• What to look for?
• Strike Selection & Ratios
• SL mgmt
• Avoiding freezes
• Monthy Expiry
• Event days
• How he would have traded last expiry?

In collaboration with @AdityaTodmal


Edward de Bono says intelligence is like a🚗 Automobile

“A powerful car may be driven badly. A less powerful car may be driven well. The skill of the car driver determines how the power of the car is used.”


What @Mitesh_Engr Sir looks at for Expiry Trading:

• Technicals of BNF
• Individual Heavyweight stocks of BNF
• Support/Resistance of BNF on weekly TF
• Also has Superb SL management
• When it comes to adjustments, he is always on toes


How to Select Strikes to Sell?

• You can't sell based on premium
• Follow only trend
• Price action is best to sell on expiry day
• Never wait for the options to go to zero


Using Ratios to Sell:

• If BNF is in a range then strangles
• If breakout/ breakdown from a range then directional
• Selling 70/30 or 80/20 ratios
• 2 examples on how he used ratios
ALL , MITESH PATEL OPTIONS STRAT , MITESH PATEL EXPIRY GUIDE
Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193
Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 ...
@BillyBostickson
Tip from the Monkey
Pangolins, September 2019 and PLA are the key to this mystery
Stay Tuned!


1. Yang


2. A jacobin capuchin dangling a flagellin pangolin on a javelin while playing a mandolin and strangling a mannequin on a paladin's palanquin, said Saladin
More to come tomorrow!


3. Yigang Tong
https://t.co/CYtqYorhzH
Archived: https://t.co/ncz5ruwE2W


4. YT Interview
Some bats & pangolins carry viruses related with SARS-CoV-2, found in SE Asia and in Yunnan, & the pangolins carrying SARS-CoV-2 related viruses were smuggled from SE Asia, so there is a possibility that SARS-CoV-2 were coming from
ALL
Advertisement
Amit Schandillia
Amit Schandillia
@Schandillia
[THREAD: HISTORY OF THE HINDU TEMPLE]
1/102
Four hours south of Aswan in Lower Nubia, right by the Nile, is a region dotted with temple complexes built more than 3,000 years ago. Some like the temples of Amada, Derr, and Beit el-Wali go as far back as 1500 BC.


2/102
A little further south, not far from the border with Sudan, is another complex dedicated to Ramses II, Hathor, and Nefertari in the village of Ipsambul, better known locally as Abu Sunbul and internationally as Abu Simbel. These go back to the 13th century BC.


3/102
Djeser-Djeseru, also known as the mortuary temple of Hatshepsut in Upper Egypt also dates to 1400 BC. Over 500 years older is the nearby Mentuhotep II, also a mortuary temple. Both were dedicated to the cult of Amun Ra, besides their respective pharaohs.


4/102
Far older is the Ġgantija complex of Malta. Going as far back as 3600 BC, this one comprises of two temples entirely made of stone and enclosed in a stone wall. From the figures therein, it's understood to be a site of some kind of a fertility cult worship.


5/102
Dating from the same period are the limestone megaliths of Ħaġar Qim and Mnajdra, both said to have once hosted ritualistic sacrifices as part of the same fertility cult worship as found in the Ġgantija complex. Malta has some of the oldest temple complexes in Europe.
RELIGION
Cole Escola
Cole Escola
@ColeEscola
If you know me, you know I don't like broadcasting details about my personal life on this website, but I have been getting asked why I'm not doing Christmas this year so I just wanna put this whole mess to bed. First of all, I don't agree with gay marriage... (1 of 4,625)

... full of dog food and she said, "I'm pretending this is ice cream! Treat me like a baby!" and proceeded to hump her own arm and I thought, "something tells me this isn't the real Norah Jones"... (117 of 4,625)

...cost me $7,000. I had to put it on two separate credit cards! It wasn't 'til I got to my car that I realized "that's way too expensive for one onion." But I didn't have time. Amanda Seyfried was begging to change my diaper... (1,001 of 4,625)

...another Christmas miracle. Mistletoe, stockings, sleigh bells, snow! All these things I have put up my ass. The taste of coffee... (2,974 of 4,625)

...I felt a *very* cold finger on my cheek and I turned around and I said, "Grandma?" and she goes, "Surprise, I'm alive and I work at Sears!" I said, "okay"... (3,047 of 4,625)
SOCIETY
antifa.drone
antifa.drone
@antifa_drone
Fake chats claiming to be from the Irish African community are being disseminated by the far right in order to suggest that violence is imminent from #BLM supporters. This is straight out of the QAnon and Proud Boys playbook. Spread the word. Protest safely. #georgenkencho


There is co-ordination across the far right in Ireland now to stir both left and right in the hopes of creating a race war. Think critically! Fascists see the tragic killing of #georgenkencho, the grief of his community and pending investigation as a flashpoint for action.


Across Telegram, Twitter and Facebook disinformation is being peddled on the back of these tragic events. From false photographs to the tactics ofwhite supremacy, the far right is clumsily trying to drive hate against minority groups and figureheads.


Declan Ganley’s Burkean group and the incel wing of National Party (Gearóid Murphy, Mick O’Keeffe & Co.) as well as all the usuals are concerted in their efforts to demonstrate their white supremacist cred. The quiet parts are today being said out loud.


The best thing you can do is challenge disinformation and report posts where engagement isn’t appropriate. Many of these are blatantly racist posts designed to drive recruitment to NP and other Nationalist groups. By all means protest but stay safe.
TRADING