The dust hasn't yet settled, but we can draw some early conclusions from today's protests in #Russia. TL;DR: The Kremlin and the opposition are at a stalemate.

/1

I don't see reliable nationwide turnout figures, but this feels similar in size & scale to the 2017 Dimon protests, which brought out 60-100k nationwide. This may be bigger. Either way, more than the Kremlin was hoping to see, but probably less than the opposition wanted.

/2

The Kremlin went to extraordinary lengths to keep people off the streets - including preventive arrests, online censorship, and threats to workers and students - and there's little indication it worked (though, I suppose, turnout could have been even higher).

/3

The opposition demonstrated that it can turn out significant numbers of people nationwide, even when its leaders are in jail and there is a credible threat of violence.

/4

Meanwhile, the Kremlin is sticking to the tactics it used against the Moscow protests in the summer of 2019: random but not overwhelming violence, enough to create fears of bodily harm, but not enough to keep people off the streets.

/5