SteveeRogerr Authors Bill Hanage

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Bill Hanage
Bill Hanage
@BillHanage
I’ve thought long and hard about this. There is a constellation of circumstantial evidence around the most recently identified variant P.1, and what has been happening in Manaus, Brazil which makes me very seriously concerned. A thread 🧵

First Manaus has already been very hard hit by the pandemic. News reports in earlier stages told of rushed burials and bodies piling up

The crucial thing was the rapid rates of transmission, not really mitigated by ‘flattening the curve’ any. total per capita mortality was not as high as might be expected elsewhere, but only because the age structure of the population in Manaus skews young

(I just did the calculation, the numbers of deaths are quite consistent with independent estimates of age stratified IFRs as per

By October 2020, 76% of the population were estimated to have been infected. This is based on a convenience sample of antibodies found in blood donors. I don’t like convenience samples and the true figure might well be lower, but not a lot lower
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Bill Hanage
Bill Hanage
@BillHanage
My announcement that I was running with a mask got a LOT of comment (from all sides) earlier. It’s in response to changes in the state of the pandemic and the transmissibility of the virus. Worth unpacking 1/goodness knows


First I posted the photo after a couple of interviews this week in which mask use outside was discussed in the context of surging infections due to the variant B.1.1.7. Here's one


And then this with RTE where were talked about mask use in the context of the situation in the Republic of Ireland, where cases are surging. I commented that I run with a mask. Hence the


Some asked “why are you doing this outside?” – I know where they’re coming from. Risk of transmission is MUCH lower outside. If all contacts were outside there probably would not *be* a pandemic. But it's also not nil


and remember this is also about solidarity. Seeing a person wearing a mask is a sign that they are looking out for you and not just themselves, because masks greatly reduce the risk of transmission
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