THURSDAY 24th

Merry Brexmas
-Johnson is expected to make the Brexit deal announcement today at around 08:00GMT
-Johnson will first talk to EU Chief at 07:00GMT to sign and seal after "late night wrangles over individual fish species" (not a joke)

-There were four secret calls between PM and EU chief VDL yesterday to get the deal over the line, VDL asked Johnson: “Do we have a deal?” to which the PM replied, “Yes.” 🍾
-Johnson is said to have made "huge concessions", likely to anger Brexiteers in Britain

-Senior European source says Johnson is willing to accept that the EU hands back just 25 percent of the value of fish it catches in British waters, over a 5.5-year transition period. The UK was previously insisting on 35 percent, over three years

-Sources say Boris showered Michael Gove with praise last night on the Cabinet call, Said his former rival and been "indispensable" in getting a deal, with planning and No Deal readiness🤗

South Africa travel ban
-Passengers travelling from South Africa to England today will be denied entry, after government scientists and ministers became increasingly alarmed about a new strain of the coronavirus that has emerged in the country.

These are the questions, big and small, that I will be asking about the shape and quality of a Brexit deal when the text is out:

(A long thread)

On manufactured goods:

1. Does the agreement provide zero-tariff and zero-quota access on all goods?

Where to find the answer: Chapter on Tariffs

2. Under what circumstances might tariffs be imposed in the future?

Where to find the answer: Chapters on Trade Remedies, on Subsidies, and Trade and Labour, and Trade and Environment

3. Is there “mutual recognition of conformity assessment”? If so, what products does it cover?

Chapter on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and relevant annexes

4. What are the agreed “rules of origin” requirements?

Chapter on Rules of Origin

Here’s a fundamental Brexit truth I don’t think we’ve discussed enough: the reason why Brexit has been on the front pages for so much of the past few years doesn’t actually have that much to do with Brexit. Let me explain:

Of course the UK’s relationship with the EU is of enormous economic, social & legal importance, past, present and future. Of course the trade deal matters, as will immigration rules and all the rest. But the real, real reason Brexit has been such a big deal is something else:

Brexit is first and foremost a story about the Tory party, which happens to be the party of government. Brexit mattered these past four and a half years because it deposed two prime ministers. It decided elections. It was an issue of immense political significance.

Yes, clearly underlying this there was economics and chewy discussion about N Ireland and the UK’s place in the world. But much as I’d like (as an economics/policy geek) to pretend THAT was why it dominated the news agenda, in reality it was big news because it could fell PMs

That political soap opera has so dominated the front pages that the (to me at least) much more interesting story about Brexit itself has been rather drowned out. What is that story? That the UK is heading towards what, a few years ago, everyone would have called a “hard Brexit”