CodyyyGardner Authors Adam Hamdy

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Adam Hamdy
Adam Hamdy
@adamhamdy
1. Last NYE was a quiet one for @AmyMcLellan2 & I, after a busy year writing and helping @DavidHHeadley and @LizzieCurle organise @CapitalCrime1

Someone I follow on Twitter shared this story, and we jokingly said we hoped it wouldn’t be another SARS.

2. A few days later, after watching social media footage coming out of Wuhan, I went for a meeting to plan Capital Crime 2021, and said it was likely we’d have to cancel the festival because of the emerging pandemic. My partners in crime looked at me as though I was unhinged.

3. As the situation worsened, I reconnected with people I knew from my previous life working as a consultant to the medical industry, and it became clear we were witnessing the start of a pandemic.

4. Knowing something about the history of pandemics, I was aware that early intervention, and quick and decisive action were essential. I was asked to write a report for Matt Hancock on the risks of reinfection and long-term ill health caused by coronaviruses.

5. Knowing the public health and economic costs of a pandemic, I joined people like @DrEricDing trying to raise the alarm in February, calling for decisive government action. In the report sent to Hancock, I recommended a 4-week precautionary border closure and lockdown...
HEALTH
Adam Hamdy
Adam Hamdy
@adamhamdy
1. This thread has been given a new lease of life today. People keep saying, "We can't do #ZeroCovid, it doesn't fit with our way of life."

Look around.

What way of life?

The one we used to have?

The UK has been under varying degrees of restriction since March 23rd 2020.


2. Nearly a year of having our social and economic freedoms curtailed in one way or another. Nearly a year of muted economic activity. Nearly a year of mass death and disease.

#ZeroCovid doesn't fit with a way of life that doesn't exist anymore.

3. The question isn't whether it fits with our old freewheeling ways, but whether it would lead to better outcomes than the UK's current (poorly defined) strategy? Experiences in New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam, China, Taiwan and elsewhere very much suggest it would.

4. #ZeroCovid isn't about what's possible. It's about what's necessary. Decide what's necessary and figure out a way to make it possible. We can't force travellers to quarantine in hotels for two weeks? Why not? Taiwan does. And if that's what's necessary, why aren't we doing it?

5. I've heard some odd things said about #ZeroCovid

Simple-minded clod Matt Hancock said Zero Covid is impossible because no country has had zero cases.

Zero Covid sets out an ambition. It signals a country treats any infections as serious
SOCIETY
Adam Hamdy
Adam Hamdy
@adamhamdy
1. I believe the government is about to make another huge mistake. Where is @UKLabour in all this? I have some questions @Keir_Starmer should be asking urgently. Please RT to raise awareness.


2. Where is the modelling or evidence to support a focused protection vaccination strategy? The government has chosen it as its preferred strategy but it must have considered other options. Will the government publish the data and the alternative options considered?

3. A responsible government will have modelling for 20%, 50% and 80% vaccine coverage, and projections for the number of infections, Long Covid and deaths in each scenario. Where are those models? On what basis has the government opted for the 20% scenario?

4. The government should also have modelled each of these scenarios against a backdrop of low, medium and high community transmission. What is the impact of each vaccination scenario against varying levels of community transmission?

5. There should also be some assessment of incidence of reinfection and likely evolution of variants given different levels of community transmission. What does this assessment tell us?
GOVERNMENT