1. A brief thread on why we should not panic but should worry, even be a bit...alarmed.

I've been speaking with former Trump Administration officials and with other former senior national security types who remain plugged in to the Pentagon.

2. They think we'll most likely "be ok;" but they are worried about what one called the three I's:
Iran.
The Insurrection Act.
and (White House and civilian DOD leadership) Insanity.

3. Iran.

January 3 is the anniversary of Suleimani's killing, followed shortly by the end of the 40-day mourning period for Fakhrizadeh. So there is the prospect of Iranian retaliation, to which a U.S. response (or conceivably preemptive action) would certainly be legitimate.

4. Iran (cont'd)

But of course there's also the possibility of the Trump Administration using an Iranian provocation to launch an action that's way beyond proportionate, as well as the possibility of simply inventing a predicate for U.S. action.

5. Iran (cont'd)

This obviously wouldn't stop the transition or even endanger it; but it would create an atmosphere of crisis and even chaos in which the second possibility--the Insurrection Act--might seem more doable.

1. Thread.

In light of tomorrow's congressional session to record the electoral votes, and for conservatives and Republicans who claim to look for guidance to the Founders, a short thread from Federalist #68.

2. "It was desirable that the sense of the people should operate in the choice of the person to whom so important a trust was to be confided. This end will be answered by committing the right of making it, not to any pre-established body...

3. "...but to men chosen by the people for the special purpose, and at the particular conjuncture...It was also peculiarly desirable to afford as little opportunity as possible to tumult and disorder...But the precautions which have been so happily concerted...

4. "...in the system under consideration promise an effectual security against this mischief...As the electors, chosen in each state, are to assemble and vote in the state in which they are chosen, this detached and divided situation will expose them much less...

5. "...to heats and ferments, which might be communicated from them to the people, than if they were all to be convened at one time, in one place. Nothing was more to be desired than that every practicable obstacle should be opposed to cabal, intrigue, and corruption...